What Transit Can Do and What It Can’t Do

One of Captain Jack Sparrow’s famous sayings in the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie was, “The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man can’t do.” The Antiplanner’s faithful ally, Tom Rubin, echoes these words in a recent presentation focusing on what transit can do and what transit can’t do. In particular, he says, transit can provide mobility for people who can’t or don’t want to drive, but it can’t relieve congestion, reduce transportation costs to taxpayers, save energy, reduce pollution, create real estate development, or stimulate the economy of a region.

Rubin used to be the chief financial officer for one of the largest transit agencies in the nation, so he knows what he’s talking about. He goes on to say that, when transit agencies try to do some of the things they can’t do, they end up doing poorer jobs of the things they can do.

Much of his presentation draws upon his 2013 study on the relationship between transit and congestion. One of the study’s findings was that increased transit use is associated with increased congestion. Rubin suggests this is partly because regions that spend more of their transportation dollars on transit end up more congested because transit is not a cost-effective solution to congestion.
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Another persistent myth is that young people are rejecting cars in favor of transit. A recent article in the Journal of Public Transportation throws cold water on this idea. It finds that transit use among young people today can be explained by such things as life cycle factors that change as people age and locational factors, i.e., young people living in cities, that are likely to change as they age. While it is possible that this generation, unlike every preceding generation for the past century, will continue to use transit as they get older, “such an outcome is far from assured.”

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

12 Responses to What Transit Can Do and What It Can’t Do

  1. sprawl says:

    I’m always amazed how transit supporters in the Portland area, keep telling us, if it was not for Tri-Met and the light rail lines, congestion would be much worst.
    As it continues to get worst.

  2. OFP2003 says:

    Way too often, the average citizen cedes common sense to the experts. I had a planning job in Boston in the North End, the “experts” said the residents preferred small specialty food shoppes. The residents told us out of their own mouths that they wanted a big Safeway grocery store. People know what they want: Single Family Detached, two cars in the garage, suburban living. The experts tell them that’s not what they want.

  3. OFP2003 says:

    ..and they want to drive to work in an environment that they control, seat material, temperature, sound, smells, cleanliness, company(other riders)…… etc.

  4. OregonEconomist says:

    Eisenhower’s farewell address contained two warnings. One was the potentially corrupting influence of the “military-industrial complex.” The second is less famous but just as important: the “danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.” His advice to the nation was this: ”
    It is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system — ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society.”

  5. LoneSnark says:

    The link to the presentation doesn’t seem to work (Page not found) ;-(

  6. Sandy Teal says:

    If you want to bring back silent movies, you certainly have to ban “talkies”. If you want to bring back radio dramas, you have to ban all TV. If you want to bring back telegrams, you have to ban telephones.

    And if you want to bring back choo-choo trains, you have to ban automobiles.

  7. Dave Brough says:

    Mr. Rubin says “… transit can provide mobility for people who can’t or don’t want to drive”.
    Not quite. Transit requires that you get to a stop and get from a stop (first and last mile problems) thus providing only partial mobility.
    Easily corrected with an ap, Uber-like vehicles, and chits for those who need assistance in paying.

  8. Dave Brough says:

    …nor can transit effectively carry groceries, cement blocks, sheets of plywood or most of the other ‘stuff’ that people need to get from one spot to another and which is easily accomplished with a set of wheels.

  9. Not Sure says:

    “…nor can transit effectively carry groceries…

    Exactly. I ran some errands today and it took five trips to carry the stuff I brought home into the house from my car. Using transit? Ignoring the half mile walk from the nearest transit stop, I’d still have to make five separate trips to the store. Who wants to do that?

  10. prk166 says:

    The Millenials are G I A N T. They’re bigger than the baby boomer generation. It’s no more accurate to predict that based on their current preference for living at home with their parents ( + w/ the bank of mom and dad kicking in rent, it’s over 1/2 of them ) means that in 30 years THEY WILL WANT TO BE LIVING AT HOME WITH MOM AND DAD then it is to say that because they prefer transit today that in 30 years they’ll prefer it.


    In terms of sheer numbers, there are more young adults today than there were when the recession hit – the 18- to 34-year-old population has grown by nearly 3 million since 2007. But the number heading their own households has not increased.
    ” ~ Pew Research Center

    http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/07/29/more-millennials-living-with-family-despite-improved-job-market/

  11. prk166 says:

    Does anyone have proof that the much mentioned __preference__ Millennials tell people that have for transit is backed by their actions? Are their proportionatly more 25 year olds taking taking transit today than there were 20 years ago?

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