Auto traffic in New York City is back to 85 to 85 percent of pre-pandemic levels, and truck traffic is up to 100 percent or more, according to “Gridlock” Sam Schwartz. Schwartz is the traffic engineer who popularized and possibly coined the term “gridlock.”
As the Antiplanner noted a couple of weeks ago, nationwide driving in July had returned to 89 percent of July, 2019 levels. But how can traffic be that high if everyone is working at home?
According to the National Household Transportation Survey, less than 19 percent of personal auto travel is for commuting. When trucks and other commercial traffic are added, the percentage of motor vehicle trips that are made by commuters is much smaller. Thus, traffic could rise to 85 or even 90 percent of normal even if almost none of the increase was for commuting.
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Of course, not everyone is working at home. But I suspect New York has a higher percentage of people working at home than most other urban areas; only Washington and the San Francisco Bay Area (including San Jose) are likely to be higher. Since most New York City commuters and 30 percent of New York urban area commuters use transit, auto travel could easily rise to 90 percent or so of pre-pandemic levels without much of it being for commuting.
In any case, the basic point made in my recent Reason Foundation paper remains: driving has recovered faster than transit because driving is more resilient than transit. Unfortunately, resiliency is not yet a factor that many transportation policy makers take into account.
