Americans flew 96.2 percent as many domestic passenger-miles in January 2023 than the same money in 2019, according to data released by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) yesterday. These data come more than a month after other transportation-related data, so I usually rely instead on Transportation Security Administration passenger counts to see how well air travel is recovering since the pandemic. However, unlike TSA counts, the passenger-miles reported by the BTS sort domestic from international travel.
International air travel in January was only 78 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to the BTS data. This conflicts with TSA counts, which were 103 percent of January 2019, which is impossible if domestic was 96 percent and international 78 percent. The BTS numbers are generally revised upwards slightly, but this is a large discrepancy. I suspect the BTS numbers, which are based on data reported to them by the airlines, are more reliable than passenger counts.
The data also suggest some minor changes in travel habits. The average length of domestic flights grew from about 850 miles in 2003 to about 925 miles in 2019 and 940 miles in 2022. International flights also grew before the pandemic from 3,150 miles in 2003 to nearly 3,400 miles in 2019. However, in 2022 the average international flight was less than 3,050 miles long, suggesting fewer people are taking truly long-distance flights.
The BTS data also show such things as load factors and revenues. The average domestic flight was 85 percent full in 2019, falling to 59 percent in 2020, but rising again to 84 percent in 2022. International flights were 84 percent full in 2019 but under 80 percent full in 2022.
Airfares for domestic flights have fallen, as they averaged $221 per passenger in 2019 but only $200 per passenger in 2022. However, fares for international flights have increased despite the shorter average distances, averaging $284 in 2019 but $304 in 2022.
