Politico has just discovered that transit systems are still carrying “less than 70 percent of their pre-pandemic traffic.” As a result, “Public transit is facing a financial rut that’s spurred their CEOs to press city and state governments for new funding streams and taxes.”
Why subsidize empty transit vehicles? Photo by Ashton Emanuel.
I am continually appalled, though not surprised, that so many reporters take it for granted that transit should continue operating at existing or even expanded levels no matter what the cost to taxpayers. They take it as a given that transit doesn’t exist to serve cities or their residents; instead, urban residents exist as a funding source to keep transit running. If you aren’t riding transit, you should still be forced to pay taxes to keep it operating.
Before the pandemic, demographer Wendell Cox used census data to show that transit carried a lot of people to downtowns. In his most recent report, which covered the years 2012 through 2016, transit carried more than 40 percent of workers to downtown Boston, Chicago New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington.
Transit’s Share of Downtown & Non-Downtown Jobs
| Urban Area | % of Workers in Downtown | Downtown Transit Share | Non-Downtown Transit Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 21.8% | 78.4% | 19.9% |
| Washington | 16.5% | 49.2% | 9.7% |
| Honolulu | 13.5% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
| San Francisco-Oakland | 21.7% | 56.1% | 8.6% |
| Boston | 11.8% | 55.8% | 8.4% |
| Chicago | 13.9% | 46.4% | 7.3% |
| Baltimore | 7.6% | 20.1% | 6.8% |
| Philadelphia | 8.6% | 49.8% | 6.7% |
| Seattle | 12.8% | 40.2% | 5.5% |
| Los Angeles | 2.9% | 23.3% | 5.2% |
| Portland | 11.0% | 27.9% | 4.9% |
| San Jose | 3.4% | 9.6% | 4.1% |
| Las Vegas | 2.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% |
| Pittsburgh | 10.4% | 34.5% | 3.8% |
| Milwaukee | 8.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% |
| Miami | 3.4% | 13.1% | 3.6% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul | 7.4% | 33.2% | 3.4% |
| Buffalo | 8.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% |
| New Orleans | 13.5% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Rochester | 7.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Tucson | 2.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| Salt Lake City | 9.2% | 14.5% | 2.9% |
| St. Louis | 5.7% | 10.5% | 2.8% |
| San Diego | 3.9% | 12.0% | 2.7% |
| Hartford | 14.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% |
| Providence | 3.8% | 11.0% | 2.7% |
| Denver-Aurora | 9.9% | 21.8% | 2.6% |
| Cleveland | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.6% |
| Atlanta | 7.8% | 14.2% | 2.5% |
| San Antonio | 5.1% | 8.7% | 2.3% |
| Austin | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.3% |
| Grand Rapids | 9.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| Orlando | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| Phoenix | 1.8% | 12.5% | 2.1% |
| Louisville | 10.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Virginia Beach | 3.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| Columbus | 11.0% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Cincinnati | 7.5% | 10.4% | 1.7% |
| Charlotte | 9.5% | 10.4% | 1.7% |
| Jacksonville | 9.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Detroit | 4.5% | 6.1% | 1.5% |
| Houston | 6.3% | 17.7% | 1.5% |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Dallas-Ft. Worth | 2.6% | 16.6% | 1.4% |
| Sacramento | 8.8% | 14.2% | 1.3% |
| Memphis | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Richmond | 12.4% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Nashville | 11.4% | 5.4% | 1.1% |
| Raleigh | 6.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Kansas City | 5.1% | 5.6% | 1.1% |
| Indianapolis | 11.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Birmingham | 9.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Tulsa | 9.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Oklahoma City | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
As explained in the text, this is based on 2012-2016 American Community Survey data and shows the percentage of jobs in each urban area that are downtown, the share of downtown workers who commuted by transit, and the share of non-downtown workers who commuted by transit.
Outside of downtowns (as well as in many downtowns), transit was far less effective. I used American Community Survey estimates of the total number of jobs and total number of transit commuters, by urban area, for the same years (2012 through 2016). Subtracting Cox’s downtown numbers from the total reveals that transit carried less than 10 percent of non-downtown workers to work in every urban area except New York and less than 5 percent in all but ten urban areas. On average, less than 10 percent of jobs were in downtowns, so transit was not doing a good job of serving more than 90 percent of urban residents.
Since the pandemic, not only are more people working at home, a disproportionate share of those people formerly worked in downtowns. Transit is not going to come back unless downtowns come back, and I doubt downtowns will ever fully recover.
Instead of demanding more subsidies, transit agencies should see this as an opportunity to reinvent themselves so they can better serve all of the people in their regions instead of just people going to and from downtown. But that’s not going to happen so long as reporters and pundits continue to act as though transit is something that must be saved rather than this being an opportunity to allow taxpayers to reduce their gargantuan subsidies to an industry that was already obsolete before the pandemic.
The issue with milking car drivers as a source of revenue..to pay for transit….
1: It sends the wrong political message, in essence, they’re saying/admitting “We need auto drivers” to spend as much money as possible so we can stay afloat
2: If they succeed in reducing drivership rates, it doesn’t leave much for transit if revenue declines.
3: Transit infrastructures overall maintenance debacle is not result to lack of funds. States pilfer 20 percent of gas taxes and highway toll, other user fee revenues to pay for non-highway activities. If ticket fares and tax revenue and Highway user fees are insufficient to pay for it’s upkeep……..what more can we do?
Answer is nothing. Recognize you run an obsolete business layoff your staff, phase out over time your transit infrastructure. Then divert the funds into an infrastructure bank to save for a rainy day or pay down some debts
They shoot horses, don’t they?
When an animal is hopelessly sick and there is no hope of recovery, it’s put out of its misery. Transit should be put out of its misery…I mean, out of taxpayers’ misery.
What makes this especially bad is that with the shift to hybrid work for most all office workers, downtowns may not see more office space for anther generation.