Here’s more evidence that rail transit advocates–in this case, streetcar supporters–are totally delusional: proponents of a 7.4-mile Columbia Pike streetcar in Arlington, Virginia, estimate that the streetcar line will carry 42,800 people per day in 2035. That’s nearly 5,800 daily boardings per mile of streetcar line, which is more than twice as great than the most heavily used streetcar lines in the country. It is even greater than all but one light-rail line and only 20 percent less than the Washington MetroRail system.
According to the 2012 National Transit Database, the most heavily used lines that the Federal Transit Administration currently defines as streetcars are in Philadelphia, which carried nearly 85,000 people per weekday (see the service spreadsheet for weekday trips and the fixed guideway spreadsheet for directional route miles–divide directional route miles by 2 to get route miles). But there are 108 route miles of such lines for an average of just 780 boardings per mile. The streetcar line that attracted the most passengers per mile in 2012 was in Portland (probably because it was nearly free), and it attracted 2,670 weekday riders per mile–less than half of the projection for the Arlington streetcar.
“The Columbia Pike corridor currently has the highest transit ridership within the Commonwealth for a corridor without fixed guideway service,” say streetcar supporters. They think the “high-capacity” streetcar will handle this ridership and attract even more riders. But not even most light-rail lines, whose capacities are several times greater than streetcars, attract 5,000 riders per day.
In 2012, Boston’s 39 miles of light rail attracted by far the most riders of any light-rail system: more than 248,000 per weekday, or nearly 6,400 riders per mile. That’s about 10 percent more than the projection for the Arlington streetcar, but Boston is the only one. The next-most-heavily used light-rail line carries only 4,000 passengers per mile, and the average for all light-rail lines in the country is just 2,000 per mile.
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The Washington Metro system, one of the most heavily used subways in America, carries nearly 970,000 riders per day. But it is 135 miles long, so it attracts about 7,200 weekday trips per mile, just 25 percent more than the projection for the streetcar. In other words, the Arlington streetcar is projected to be nearly as productive as one of the most heavily used high-capacity rail line in the country.
Can a streetcar line even handle that many people? Let’s say it operates 18 hours a day with six trips per hour in each direction. That’s 216 vehicle trips per day. At 42,600 riders per day, each streetcar would have to pick up nearly 200 people per trip. If each rider went two miles, which is about the average for streetcars, the streetcars would have to carry an average of 53 passengers a day all day lone. No rail cars in the country–not light rail, not heavy rail, nor commuter rail–operate anywhere close to that full, partly because ridership falls off during non-rush hours. So while the streetcar line could physically handle that many people, it would never actually do so.
The fantasy that the Arlington streetcar will somehow carry thousands more riders per day than any other streetcar or light-rail system in the country is matched by the fantasy that building the streetcar “will generate $3.3 billion to $4.4 billion in economic benefits to Fairfax and Arlington counties.” As the Antiplanner has noted many times before, rail transit doesn’t generate economic development; it merely provides an excuse for cities to subsidize that development.
I don’t know whether streetcar supporters are fooling themselves or trying to fool the public. But the numbers for the proposed Arlington streetcar are completely unrealistic.
Unfortunately long ago both the sport stadium industry and the rail transit industry realized they could employ firms to come up with the numbers they need for their project. They use multiplies and numbers that while truthful are not honest. Much like Bill Clinton was being truthful but not honest when he said he did not have “sexual relations” with Monica.
Amazon will pay for half of it, so who cares?
It would help if The Antiplanner got his basic arithmetic right. In this post he talks about passengers per two-way route mile for some LRT and streetcar lines, passengers per one-way route mile for others.
If one-way route miles are used for the proposed Columbia Bike Streetcar, you get 14.8 miles and 2,892 passengers per one way route mile. This isn’t out of line compared to the Portland Streetcar, or any number of other lines.
The ridership numbers are also believable, based on the estimated population and employment along the line, which is comparable to the Sacramento LRT system which carries about 50,000 daily passengers over a much longer system. Plus the Metro connections which most streetcar and LRT lines don’t have.
This sort of fundamental error, gone uncorrected, is why I often take what The Antiplanner says with grain of salt.
BTW, I see Frank, or some other world-class asshole who claims to live in Portland, has been trolling the good folks at Streetsblog lately. Guess I haven’t given enough attention here for Frank (and Metrosucks, his would-be sock puppet) to spew their mendacious distortions and lies as much as they used to.
“BTW, I see Frank, or some other world-class asshole who claims to live in Portland, has been trolling the good folks at Streetsblog lately.”
Haha. Mshitty™ just can’t keep himself from trolling this blog. He also can’t get his facts straight, whether it’s outrageous claims about Amazon paying for half of Seattle’s South Lake Union Trolley or about where I claim to live.
Antiplanner the streetcar is not projected to carry 42,800 people.
http://sites.arlingtonva.us/streetcar/files/2014/07/ColumbiaPikeStreetcar_RidershipSummary_Report_May2014.pdf
In 2035 with a Crystal city streetcar connection the Columbia pike streetcar is projected to carry 26,300 people on weekdays. 42,800 is transit ridership for the entire corridor, including buses. Service level at peak is projected to be ten streetcars per hour per direction, not six.
ahwr,
Thank you for that clarification. 26,300 is still more (per route mile) than any other streetcar line in America; more than all but three light-rail lines (Boston, Houston, and San Francisco), and almost 75 percent more than the average light-rail line. Since the Boston, Houston, and San Francisco lines all serve major downtowns, which Arlington will not, Arlington’s numbers still seem overly optimistic.
2010-2040 projected growth within 1/4 mile of a streetcar stop:
Population 45.6k->89.4k, 96%
Employment 74.3k->113k, 52%
The model gave a more reasonable ridership projection of 13.8k and 15.9k for the columbia pike streetcar alone and with crystal city connection respectively in 2015. The 2035 number is dependent on a lot of growth along the corridor. Without heavy subsidies, would simply zoning to allow high densities be enough to get that sort of growth?
Boston and San Francisco have rail systems with multiple lines. As do some other cities, LA included. Ridership is not equally distributed along the whole system. The LA blue line had nearly 4k boarding per mile in July 2014. What’s the S.F cable car (not their light rail) count as? Seems to be a streetcar by another name, gets high ridership too.
I know next to nothing about the C. Pike streetcar project, but it doesn’t fail this sort of first order analysis the way many proposals do. Doesn’t mean it’s a good project, most transportation projects are not.