Transit Carried 74.9% of 2019 Riders in November

America’s transit systems carried nearly 75 percent as many riders in November 2023 as the same month in 2019, according to data released on Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is the most riders transit has attracted, as a share of pre-pandemic levels, since the pandemic began in March 2020.

Transit’s failure to carry even three-fourths of its pre-pandemic passengers stands in contrast to Amtrak, which carried 3.1 percent more passenger-miles in November 2023 than 2019, and the airlines, which carried 4.3 percent more riders in November than in 2019. Release of airline passenger-mile data tends to be more than a month later than passenger numbers, but in September domestic air routes carried 6.0 percent more passenger-miles than the same month in 2019. November highway data are not yet available but an update will be posted here when they are. Continue reading

Amtrak Up 1.1% in October

Amtrak carried 101.1 percent as many passenger-miles in October 2023 as in the same month of 2019, according to Amtrak’s monthly performance report. This is the second time in three months that Amtrak carried more than 100 percent of pre-COVID numbers. I’m not sure why it fell to less than 90 percent in September, but August and October numbers suggest that the state-owned company has mostly recovered from the pandemic.

See last week’s post for a review of transit and air travel. October highway data are not yet available but will be posted here when it comes out.

Amtrak divides its trains into the Northeast Corridor, long-distance trains, and state-supported trains mostly operate within a state or between two states. Of these, the Boston-Washington trains are doing best, carrying 11.3 percent more riders than in 2019, and long-distance trains are next at 4.2 percent. However, the state-supported trains carried just 92.5 percent as many riders as in 2019. Continue reading

Joe Biden’s Dysfunctional Family

We’ve all heard of families where one person worked hard and made a lot of money, which attracted relatives eager to sponge off of that person’s wealth. Most would call such families dysfunctional because most of those family members should have been able to support themselves. Joe Biden’s family is like that.

An Amtrak train passes through Delaware. Photo by David Wilson.

I don’t mean Jill, Hunter, or any of his blood relatives. I mean Amtrak. As he himself has said, “The conductors, the engineers” on the trains then-Senator Joe Biden once regularly rode between Washington and Delaware “literally became my family.” Continue reading

Betteridge’s Law Applies Here

“Will Twin Cities to Duluth train succeed where it once failed?” asks a headline from a St. Paul news station. As Betteridge’s law of headlines states, “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no,” and I’m pretty sure that applies here.

Should Minnesota’s failed commuter train be supplemented by a failed intercity passenger train? Photo by Jerry Huddleston.

There are exceptions to Betteridge’s law, of course. For example, this 2019 headline, “Could the Commuter Rail from Minneapolis to Duluth be a Flop?” poses the same question in the opposite direction. One of the two headlines violates Betteridge’s law. My money is on the law applying to the first but not the second. Continue reading

Brightline’s Orlando Route Claims First Victim

The good news is that it took a month before a Brightline train on its new Orlando route killed a pedestrian. The bad news is that it did so in the same circumstances as previous fatalities south of West Palm Beach: a busy railroad crossing with inadequate crossing gates that previously saw only a few slow freight trains per day now populated with frequent fast passenger trains.

The crossing where a pedestrian was killed by a Brightline train last week is shown in this Google street view. Note that crossing gates only block the right side of the road, so pedestrians on the left side are not prevented from crossing tracks when gates are down.

This isn’t part of the route that was built new but an existing freight line that is being used by Brightline trains. When Brightline introduced fast passenger trains to a corridor previously used by slow freight trains, it should have installed better gate crossings. Instead, all it did was issue “ public service announcements on railroad safety that emphasized when the arms go down, don’t go around.” Since, as the photo above shows, the arms don’t completely block the sidewalks when they go down, that’s not very useful advice. Brightline’s failure to add better crossing gates despite the high number of deaths in the Miami-West Palm Beach corridor shows its callous disregard for people’s safety. Continue reading

Amtrak’s Acela Is Redacted

Delays and cost overruns are plaguing the new trains Amtrak is counting on to replacing its aging fleet of semi-high-speed Acela trains, according to a new report from Amtrak’s own inspector general. One of the reasons for the delays is that 34 cars that the manufacturer tried to deliver to Amtrak were returned as defective.

Click image to download a 3.0-MB PDF of this redacted.

How much are the cost overruns? We don’t know because the number was redacted from the report. How long are the delays? At least three years but we don’t know exactly because the number was redacted from the report. The report even redacts the name of the manufacturer, even though it is well known to be Alstom. “Certain information in this report has been redacted due to its sensitive nature,” says the report cover. Continue reading

Amtrak Crossing: Watch Out for the Subsidies

Flush with cash” from the 2021 infrastructure bill, says the Wall Street Journal, Amtrak hopes to “double ridership by 2040.” That’s an ambitious goal, and yet one that is totally insignificant.

Amtrak’s logo looks like a pointless arrow, but the real point is to spend lots of money.

Amtrak carried 5.1 billion passenger-miles in 2022. Divide that among the 332 million Americans and Amtrak carried the average American 15 miles. That compares with 16,000 miles of per capita travel by automobile and more than 2,100 miles by domestic airline. The Census Bureau expects the nation’s population to rise to 373 million by 2040, so even if Amtrak could double ridership, which is unlikely, per-capita intercity rail travel would grow to only about 27 miles per year. In other words, Amtrak will still be irrelevant to most Americans. Continue reading

Brightline Kills Again

As one of the comments to last week’s post noted, a Brightline train killed a pedestrian on the first day of service to Orlando. To be fair, the train that was involved in the accident wasn’t going to Orlando and the accident took place on the old part of the rail line, not the newly built line from Cocoa to Orlando.

But why should we be fair? Brightline has killed around 70 people so far, including 28 in Palm Beach County alone. I don’t have exact month-by-month data, but my sense is that the fatality rate has not been declining. The company says it plans to use government funds to make its line safer, but why should taxpayers have to pay for a supposedly private rail operation? Continue reading

Brightline Begins

Brightline will begin killing people carrying passengers between Miami and Orlando today. I hope the new line will be safe, but Brightline trains began killing people even before they went into revenue service and again when they resumed service after the pandemic. Brightline says it is willing to spend $45 million making its route safer for pedestrians and auto drivers — on the condition that taxpayers put up $35 million of it (so much for it being unsubsidized).

I’ve previously predicted that Brightline’s Miami-Orlando line is quite possibly the only higher-than-normal-speed passenger train route in American that could earn a profit. That’s because the route connects Orlando theme parks with the three busiest cruise ship ports in the United States: Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Port Canaveral. Together, they saw 11.9 million cruise ship passengers last year, which is about 15 percent less than before the pandemic, but still quite a lot. If only 40 percent of those passengers take a round-trip to Orlando on Brightline, the line would carry more passengers than Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor carried in 2022. Continue reading

Amtrak Carried 86% of Pre-Pandemic PM in May

Amtrak carried 492 million passenger-miles in May 2023, which was just 86.4 percent of the 569 million passenger-miles it carried in the same month of 2019, according to Amtrak’s latest monthly performance report. Considering that Amtrak’s April passenger-miles were nearly 91 percent as many in 2023 as 2019, this is a disappointing result. Since Amtrak ridership usually usually picks up in May due to increased vacationers, this suggests that Americans aren’t enthusiastic about riding trains for discretionary travel in a post-COVID world.

For detailed comments on transit and highways, see my July 12 post.

All three types of Amtrak trains underperformed in May, with Northeast Corridor trains carrying less than 88 percent of pre-pandemic riders, long-distance trains carrying 85 percent, and state-supported day trains carrying less than 81 percent. It is worth noting that Amtrak is putting most of the money it received for expansion in the infrastructure bill into state-supported trains even though they are the worst-performing part of its network. Amtrak’s reasoning is that Congress gave it money for capital improvements but not operating costs, so it will need to persuade the states to pay for operating costs of any new routes or increased frequencies. Continue reading