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The Benefits of Congestion Relief

By | | Transportation
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Data published by the University of Minnesota Accessibility Observatory a few months ago reveals some of the benefits of congestion relief that resulted from the COVID pandemic. I’ve used 2019 data in the past to show that residents of U.S. urban areas can reach far more jobs in a 20-minute auto drive than a 60-minute transit trip. The latest data for 2021 reveal that the number of jobs reachable by transit or bicycle was about 9 percent greater in 2021 than 2019, but the number reachable by a 20-minute auto drive was 66 percent greater.

On average, over 50 urban areas and for trips of 10 to 60 minutes, auto users were able to reach 48 percent more jobs in 2021 than in 2019. Solid lines show 2021 and dotted lines show 2019.

These numbers are the average of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas, but for some the increased access caused by less traffic was much greater. In a 20-minute auto drive, residents of Atlanta, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, and Washington could reach more than twice as many jobs in 2021 than in 2019. Of course, jobs are only one possible set of destinations that became more accessible; other social and economic opportunities also became equally more accessible. Continue reading →

What’s Happening in Oregon and Vermont?

By | | Follow up
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A few weeks ago, I noted that there appeared to be correlation between government efforts to get more people into multifamily housing and low fertility rates. The correlation is not perfect — I estimated about 0.4 — because there are a lot of factors that affect fertility rates, but it appears strong enough that, if the goal is to have a healthy demographic structure, then single-family housing should be preferred.

Click image for a larger view. Source: BirthGauge.

Unfortunately, the census data I had available didn’t allow me to make a standard calculation of birth rates, so I used a substitute. Now, a group called BirthGauge has published the above map showing birth rates calculated the standard way. It does show that birth rates are lowest in the Pacific Coast and north Atlantic Coast states that have done the most to restrict new single-family housing in favor of multifamily. Continue reading →

Elites Want to Ban Gasoline Cars, Gas Stoves

By | | News commentary
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Urban elites are far more likely than other Americans to oppose gasoline powered cars, SUVs of all types, and gas stoves, according to a survey released last week by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity. The survey defined “elites” as people who have post-graduate degrees, live in households that earn more than $150,000 a year, and live in zip codes with densities of more than 10,000 people per square mile, which is about four times the average urban density in the U.S.

The cities of Boston, Chicago, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, and San Francisco all average more than 10,000 people per square mile. Photo by Mai-Linh Doan.

Conducted by Scott Rasmussen, the survey found that 72 percent of these elites (and 81 percent of Ivy League elites) favored banning gasoline-powered cars, compared with 24 percent of Americans as a whole. Further, 58 percent of elites favored banning SUVs compared with 16 percent of Americans and 66 percent of Ivy League elites, while 69 percent of elites (and 80 percent of Ivy League elites) favored banning gas stoves compared with 25 percent of all Americans. Continue reading →

Affordable Housing Debate

By | | Housing
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The Divided We Fall web site has posted a debate over the housing crisis between the Antiplanner and former U.S. Ambassador Charles Ray. The debate covers some important issues, but I had hoped that my opponent would be a card-carrying member of the Affordable Housing Industrial Complex. Instead, Ray and I ended up agreeing on more issues that we disagreed about.

Affordable housing project in Salt Lake City. Source: Google street view.

I wanted to make the debate about the billions of tax dollars being spent building not very much housing. But it turned into a debate over housing affordability in general, which is both a completely different issue and too broad to cover in 1,000 words. Continue reading →

November Driving 1.2% More Than in 2019

By | | Transportation
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Americans drove 1.2 percent more miles in November of 2023 than in the same month in 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. Rural driving was 6 percent greater than in 2019, while urban driving was 0.9 percent less. This may partially be due to a movement of people from urban to rural areas.

For a discussion of airline, Amtrak, and transit numbers, see the post from earlier this week.

A few states are still seeing major shortfalls in driving. West Virginia is 31 percent below 2019; California is down 21 percent; and the District of Columbia remains 29 percent less than in 2019. Missouri and Washington are also below 2019 levels, but only by 5 to 6 percent. Continue reading →

Another Rail Cost Overrun

By | | Transportation
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Metro Transit has raised the projected cost of the Twin Cities’ Southwest light-rail line to $2.86 billion, or $197 million per mile for the 14.5 mile line. The news stories say this is up from $2.0 billion, but the original projected cost was $1.25 billion for 15.8 miles or less than $80 million a mile (which is still outrageous for an inflexible, low-capacity system).

Light-rail trains pass through a half-empty downtown Minneapolis. Photo by Andrew Ciscel.

Considering that downtown Minneapolis is ranked as having the third-slowest recovery of the nation’s 56 largest urban areas, and Twin Cities light rail carried only 52 percent of pre-pandemic riders in November, this would be a good time for the region to scrap the project. As I’ve suggested before, it would cost a lot less to turn it into a rapid bus route than to complete the rail project. Continue reading →

Transit Carried 74.9% of 2019 Riders in November

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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America’s transit systems carried nearly 75 percent as many riders in November 2023 as the same month in 2019, according to data released on Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is the most riders transit has attracted, as a share of pre-pandemic levels, since the pandemic began in March 2020.

Transit’s failure to carry even three-fourths of its pre-pandemic passengers stands in contrast to Amtrak, which carried 3.1 percent more passenger-miles in November 2023 than 2019, and the airlines, which carried 4.3 percent more riders in November than in 2019. Release of airline passenger-mile data tends to be more than a month later than passenger numbers, but in September domestic air routes carried 6.0 percent more passenger-miles than the same month in 2019. November highway data are not yet available but an update will be posted here when they are. Continue reading →

Life Is Joyous; Life Is Cruel

By | | Housekeeping
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When I included a photo of Smokey on my Christmas post last month, I knew he was sick, but I didn’t know how bad it was. In fact, beneath that gorgeous coat of his he had lost 20 percent of his body weight in two months. We were desperately trying to feed him anything he would eat but it turned out his digestive system had simply shut down and he died the day after New Years.

Smokey was born on April 1 2011 and saw his first snow in May 2011.

Having gone through this before, I thought it would be easier, but it’s not. I’m not religious, but the best way I can describe it is I feel like I’ve lost part of my soul. Continue reading →

Pulling the Pin

By | | Housekeeping
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I started this blog 17 years ago today and since then have put up nearly 4,000 posts. Today, I’m taking the next step towards retirement by ending my practice of posting nearly every weekday.

Is this the origin of the phrase “pulling the pin”? Maybe not but as a railfan it is nice to think so. Photo by Ben Franske.

I still have more posts planned. I’ve written two more major reports that I hope will be published soon and will post them here. I expect to continue monitoring new releases of transportation, housing, and census data and report on them here. I also need to write at least one more chapter in The Education of an Iconoclast. Continue reading →

BRT “Faster and Cheaper” Than Rail

By | | Transportation
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The World Bank is promoting bus-rapid transit as “green” and “sustainable transportation” that is “faster and cheaper to build than Metros,” meaning heavy rail. When operated with all-electric buses, says the agency, BRT will “cut life-threatening air pollutants” as well as greenhouse gas emissions.

A bus-rapid transit station in Dakar, Senegal. Photo courtesy of CETUD.

The World Bank is absolutely correct about the faster and cheaper part. However, it is overpromising when it comes to taking cars off the road. “Developing country cities that have not yet fully developed their land use and transportation infrastructure around cars can leapfrog car-centered culture and prioritize efficient, low-carbon urban transport that focuses on people rather than vehicles,” says a World Bank official. This is pure rhetoric that consigns developing cities to economic stagnation. Continue reading →