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We Dodged This Bullet Train

By | | Transportation
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The United States truly dodged a bullet when it elected not to build any high-speed rail other than the ill-fated California route. As described in recent Youtube videos, high-speed trains are doing more harm than good to China’s economy. The two videos below present similar information but each has some unique data that justify watching both.

China’s nearly 24,000 miles of high-speed rail lines are more than twice as much as the rest of the world combined. Two of the lines — Beijing-Shanghai and Beijing-Guangzhou — are at least covering their operating costs, but the rest are real money sinks, with at least one line not even earning enough in ticket revenues to pay for the electricity required to power the trains. Continue reading →

Brightline Resumes, Wants More Money

By | | Transportation
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After a 20-month shutdown due to the pandemic, Brightline, which wants to run moderate-speed passenger trains from Miami to Orlando, resumed service between Miami and West Palm Beach on Monday — and hit a car on its very first day. The company is building a line to Orlando, and is asking the state-owned Florida Development Finance Corporation for the right to sell tax-exempt private activity bonds to help pay for it.

I would be thrilled to see privately funded passenger trains. But Brightline’s presentation to the Florida Development company’s board of directors contains a lot of distortions of the truth that reduce my enthusiasm for this project. Continue reading →

Highways Are Egalitarian, Not Racist

By | | Transportation
9 Comments

During a press conference early this week, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg contended that “some beltways and interstates and highways were built . . .to be racist.” He used this argument to justify the $1 billion in the recent infrastructure bill aimed at “reconnecting communities” as well as other spending that will supposedly be focused on disadvantaged communities.

The Southern State Parkway, which Robert Caro claimed was designed by Robert Moses to prevent buses filled with blacks from traveling to Jones Beach. In fact, there is room for buses under the central part of the arch. Photo by Doug Kerr.

The argument that highways were racist stems from two sources. First, Robert Caro’s book about Robert Moses claimed that Moses deliberately built overpasses on New York City parkways too low to allow buses in order to keep blacks and other minorities (who would presumably ride buses and not drive cars) from reaching popular recreation areas such as Jones Beach. Second, the anti-highway movement of the 1960s claimed that highways were deliberately targeting black neighborhoods to force them out of cities. “No white man’s freeway through black man’s neighborhood” became the rallying cry. Continue reading →

Infrastructure Politics

By | | News commentary, Transportation
14 Comments

Last Monday, I predicted that if Glenn Youngkin won the Virginia governorship, Republicans in Congress would demand more cuts from the infrastructure bill. Nancy Pelosi apparently read my post, as she had the House hastily vote on the infrastructure bill just a few days after Youngkin’s victory. By passing the Senate bill unamended, Pelosi gave fiscal conservatives no opportunities to try to change the bill in conference. Before the Virginia election, Pelosi had been delaying a vote in order to pressure centrists to support the $3.5 trillion non-infrastructure bill, which will now be much harder to pass.

Passage of the infrastructure bill means tens of billions of dollars will be spent on needless and wasteful projects like this Seattle-area light-rail project. Photo by SounderBruce.

As passed, the infrastructure bill is really two bills: first, a reauthorization of federal spending on highways and transit; and second entirely new spending on highways, transit, Amtrak, electric vehicles, airports, ports, clean water, clean energy, and broadband. This entirely new spending is almost entirely unnecessary as the infrastructure crisis was mostly made up in order to get Congress do what it always does, which is throw money at problems. Continue reading →

Transit 2020: The First Year of the Pandemic

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
6 Comments

Transit agencies in 2020 carried 40 percent fewer riders than in 2019, according to data released last Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. To do so, they provided 86 percent as much service (measured in vehicle miles or hours) at 97 percent of the cost.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

According to the database, transit carried 5.9 billion trips in 2020. We know from the FTA’s monthly reports that transit carried 4.5 billion trips in calendar year 2020. The difference is that data in the annual database are based on transit agency fiscal years, not the calendar year. Continue reading →

Front Range Boondoggle

By | | Transportation
4 Comments

The pandemic has made people reluctant to climb aboard any form of mass transportation. But it hasn’t stopped the state of Colorado from planning an idiotic Front Range passenger train that is proposed to connect Fort Collins and Pueblo, with Denver in between. In June, Governor Jared Polis signed a bill creating a taxing district to pay for the train’s inevitable losses. Last week, the Colorado Transportation Commission agreed to spend $1.9 million on a viability study (whose total cost will be twice that).

Although the endpoints are known, the exact route of the proposed rail line through Denver has yet to be determined. Click image for a larger view.

The Denver Post, which was a major cheerleader for Denver’s $4.9 billion FasTracks plan until it became the $7.9 billion FasTracks plan, by which time it was too late, is now a major cheerleader for the Front Range passenger train plan. It claims that an Amtrak train between Chicago and Milwaukee “shows what it could be.” Yes, because Fort Collins (population: 170,000) and Pueblo (population: 112,000) are just like Milwaukee (population: 577,000), and Denver (population: 715,000) is just like Chicago (population: 2.75 million). Continue reading →

September Transit 53.6% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
1 Comment

Nationwide transit ridership in September was 53.6 percent of September 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is the first time since the pandemic began that ridership exceeded half of pre-pandemic numbers.

Airline passenger numbers are from the Transportation Security Administration; Amtrak numbers are from its September performance report.

This compares with 76.3 percent for air travel and 67.1 percent for Amtrak. The number of miles of driving in September will not be related for another week or so. Transit’s low ridership numbers are in spite of transit agencies providing more than 86 percent as much service (measured in vehicle-revenue miles) as in September 2019. Continue reading →

Why Your Amazon Delivery Was Late

By | | Transportation
4 Comments

Emmy-award-winning journalist Adam Housley posted this tweet on Saturday, suggesting that thievery from containers on trains in Los Angeles is a common occurrence.

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The Pomona Police Department reported a couple of months ago that it found $100,000 worth of goods stolen from a container train in a homeless camp near Union Pacific’s main line. UP trains had been “a target for thefts over the past several months” so police concluded these goods came from one of those trains. Continue reading →

Colorado’s Climate Change Roadmap

By | | Transportation
7 Comments

If you believe that human-caused climate change is a serious problem, then you would naturally support Colorado Governor Jaren Polis’ Greenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction Roadmap. But if you truly believe that human-caused climate change is a serious problem, then there is no way you should support this plan, as the transportation portion, at least, will cost Coloradans a colossal amount of money but have almost no effect on greenhouse gases.

Click image to download a 3.3-MB PDF of this plan.

The plan calls for a 10 percent reduction in total driving by 2030. Colorado’s population grew by 15 percent between 2010 and 2020, and it is likely to grow 15 percent more by 2030, which means the plan is really calling for a 25-percent reduction in per capita driving. Continue reading →

A Data-Driven Approach to Transportation Safety

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
4 Comments

About 20,160 people died in traffic accidents in the first half of 2021, according to an early estimate released last week by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). This puts this year on track to being the first since 2007 to have more than 40,000 annual fatalities.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Historically, fatality rates peaked at more than 450 per billon vehicle miles in 1909, and then declined fairly steadily to 10.1 in 2014. The 2021 rate of 13.4 represents a 33 percent increase over 2014 levels. This increase is partly due to changes in driving behavior during the pandemic, but rates had increased even before the pandemic, reaching 11.4 fatalities per billion miles in 2016. Although the evidence isn’t clear, many experts believe much of the increase, both before and during the pandemic, was due to people being distracted by smart phones. Continue reading →