Interstate 35 between San Antonio and Austin is congested, so obviously (to some people, at least) the solution is to run passenger trains between the two cities. Existing tracks are crowded with freight trains, so the Lone Star Rail District proposes to build a brand-new line for the freight trains and run passenger trains on the existing tracks. The total capital cost would be about $3 billion, up from just $0.6 billion in 2004 (which probably didn’t include the freight re-route).
Click image to download a PDF version of this map.
By coincidence, that was the projected capital cost for the proposed high-speed rail line between Tampa and Orlando (cancelled by Florida Governor Rick Scott), which are about the same 80-miles apart as Austin and San Antonio. But, despite the cost, Lone Star wouldn’t be a high-speed rail line. According to a 2004 feasibility study, trains would take about 90 minutes between the two cities, with two stops in between. While express trains with no stops would be a bit faster, cars driving at Texas speeds could still be faster.
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Lone Star is asking the San Antonio city council for $500,000 to help pay for an environmental impact statement and other studies. Austin has supposedly already agreed to fund its share, though it isn’t in the city’s budget.
Lone Star is promising 32 trains (16 each way) carrying 20,000 riders (10,000 round trips) per day at fares of up to $12. That’s more than 600 riders per train; though some may not go the entire distance, it still seems high. Megabus currently operates three buses a day that take 85 minutes between the two cities at fares of $1.50 to $7.50. It seems likely that if there were 20,000 people per day wanting to pay $12 to take the trip at the same speed, Megabus would find them.
If the goal is to relieve congestion on I-35, two new lanes would probably cost less than a billion dollars and would be capable of moving far more vehicles per day than Lone Star would take off the road. Of course, the highway is probably not congested over the entire route, so two new lanes for the full length probably aren’t necessary. Besides, self-driving cars will probably go on sale and eliminate any need for passenger trains before the first Lone Star train would turn a wheel.
San Antonio Mayor Ivy Taylor, who famously cancelled the city’s even more backwards streetcar project, says that Lone Star isn’t one of her priorities. “There will be benefits from this alternative transit option, but we have to be good fiscal stewards,” she added. Local taxpayers should hope that she and the San Antonio city council can resist the starry-eyed Lone Star plan.
“It seems likely that if there were 20,000 people per day wanting to pay $12 to take the trip at the same speed, Megabus would find them.”
At $240,000.00 A DAY in gross revenue, even after operating expenses, Megabus would be able to fully pay for each new bus within 2 to 3 days. This is compared to a train system where not a single train car would ever be paid for as all of its income would be eaten up by operating expense and maintenance (if they ever bothered to do any).
But as these 20,000 people don’t really exist, don’t hold your breath on Megabus buying 200 new buses anytime soon. They have to live off their revenues, not off the taxpayers.
So the taxpayers give them venture capital – after all, that is what money for the EIS is – and they get no ownership stake in the company? That sounds like a sweet deal for the owners. No wonder they’re not just raising that VC in the private market.
Another routing similar to the ORL-Tampa and AUS – SAT is St. Paul to Rochester ( MN ). Private investors have recently stepped forward and pushed for an exclusive first option for air rights on US52 and 494. Why? Probably for the same reasons as Lone Star, they’re looking to position themselves as a “private” venture while they take start-up $ from taxpayers.
Set aside ideology, by skipping having to raise the very small amount of $ needed for the EIS, we have no idea if they’re capable of raising the $$,$$$,$$$,$$$ needed for a project like this.
It reminds me a bit of England in soccer. They used to claim they were th best, the inventors of the sport and didn’t need to be bothered to have to prove how good they were. When they finally played in a World Cup they learned the hard way there were a lot of teams better than them. They couldn’t get the job done.
Similarly these little firms have grand claims of being able to accomplish something that is literally a huge deal that’ll take $5B – $12B to build and run. Yet they’re not doing anything to show they can get it done.
BTW – Note how worthless these claimed cost estimates are. Zip Rail and the related private company claim that for $3B or $4B they can build 85 – 95 miles of elevated track ( aka continuous bridge ) fro a 230mph train for the same cost Lone Star claims it will cost for a similar length corridor for regular speed, non-elevated passenger service.
According to a 2004 feasibility study, trains would take about 90 minutes between the two cities, with two stops in between.
Then why are there 16 stops listed along the route? Plans must have changed dramatically in the last 10 years. Of course, this would significantly affect its operating characteristics as well.
The facts pointed out here won’t make any difference with the anti-rail extremists here, but the Lone Star patronage estimate of 20k passengers per day is quite plausible, compared with other areas.
This comment is for the reasonable lurkers here, not proven asshats like Metrof–ks and that clown Frank (the latter is sometimes right, but then so is a broken clock twice a day). But I digress.
In Utah, the 85-mile Front Runner carries around 16k per day in an area with about 2 million+ people total, with hourly trains all day and every 30 minutes during peak hours. And it does this under conditions not particularly favorable to rail, e.g., the line is located quite a ways from the center of population in the Ogden-Salt Lake City-Provo corridor. The southern end of the line ends fairly close to the center of downtown Provo, but is nearly a mile away from the core of downtown Salt Lake, and a good 15-20 minute walk to the center of downtown Ogden.
In comparison, the ~98 mile Rail Runner in New Mexico carries ~3,500-4,000 per day on a limited schedule of 8 round trips during peak hours only. Total corridor population is around 900,000. If they ran all day hourly with 30 minute peaks, it would probably carry 8,000-10,000 per day. But they can’t afford to run that level of service thanks to the choice of locomotive-hauled trains for relatively small loads, despite the availability of DMUs that now meet FRA crash standards.
The total population of Austin and San Antonio is upwards of 4.2 million, and growing very quickly. Unlike the Frontrunner and Rail Runner, the Lone Star corridor also has large relatively downtowns near both ends (70K+ jobs each, 100k+ in Austin including the University of Texas, plus 50K+ students). According to the map, there will also be substantial lines south of the San Antonio CBD and north of the Austin CBD; this should generate considerable local traffic as well as between the two cities.
In my estimation, the best chance of success is to buy DMUs like the TEX Rail line in Fort Worth, so they can afford to run trains every 30 minutes all day from early morning to late night. There is also the considerable value of getting heavy UP freight traffic out of the centers of both Austin and San Antonio, certainly worth a lot to many people who might never ride the passenger trains.
I thought you agreed to ignore me.
“According to a 2004 feasibility study, trains would take about 90 minutes between the two cities, with two stops in between. While express trains with no stops would be a bit faster, cars driving at Texas speeds could still be faster.”
1. No way in hell a train making 2 stops can get from Austin to SA in 90 minutes unless it’s traveling at very high speeds between stops between stops.
2. Under optimal conditions (which never exist on that stretch of I-35), it’s going to take a car 90 minutes to get from Austin to SA (downtown to downtown), not less.
3. During peak hours 2+ hours of driving is more likely.
4. The only way a train will be more attractive than driving on this stretch is if it is very fast, is ultra high capacity, it eliminates about 1/2 the stops on that map, and the fare is heavily subsidized. It the context of Lone Star Rail all users would be both pedestrians and would require a transfer to VIA/CapMetro services. That’s going to be a hard sell.
5. Trains are expensive, inflexible, etc. yaddy yaddy yadda…
Ok. Please then edit the “asshat” comment, too, please. Thanks!