Honolulu Rail More Boondoggly Than Ever

The Federal Transit Administration’s latest estimates suggest that the Honolulu rail line now under construction could cost nearly $10.8 billion, or more than twice the $5.1 billion originally promised. That’s the “highest possible cost” calculated by its estimation process, while the “likely range” is $7.2 to $8.0 billion. However, two years ago, the highest possible cost was estimated to be $7.6 billion, which is right in the middle of today’s likely range.

Any of those numbers are drastic overruns. Typically, transit agency officials have denied there is an overrun. But now they are proposing to not build the last five miles of the rail line into downtown Honolulu. Since they started construction in middle of farm lands 20 miles from downtown, they would truly have a rail line going from nowhere to hardly anywhere.

Even if it doesn’t finish the line, the city has already purchased and may continue to purchase land in the downtown area for the rail line. This creates uncertainty among property owners. Even further uncertainty is generated by reports of shoddy construction. Meanwhile, the FTA has hinted it might withhold some of the federal government’s share of funding if the line isn’t completed.


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New York City, with its 8.5 million people, can get away with spending a few billion on rail construction. But Honolulu only has 350,000 people, and though the FTA promised to pay $1.5 billion of the cost, the agreement it made with the transit agency was that local taxpayers would be 100 percent responsible for cost overruns. The city simply can’t afford to complete this line, at least not in the next decade or so.

This is one project that should be stopped even though they’ve already started construction. The environmental benefits of an electric-powered rail line are nil when more than 80 percent of the state’s electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels, mostly oil. The environmental impact statement showed that the line would increase, rather than decrease, congestion (before mitigation, but that mitigation could have been done without the rail line, thus reducing congestion and saving billions).

Irrationally, Honolulu selected a high-cost, low-capacity rail technology that won’t be able to move nearly as many people per hour as buses could do. There is really no reason to complete the rail line and every reason to stop.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

4 Responses to Honolulu Rail More Boondoggly Than Ever

  1. LazyReader says:

    I don’t know what they’re smoking but I’m sure it’s Hawaiian and unpronounceable by me. Oahu isn’t exactly a big island it’s roughly 30×20 miles. Going out on a limb as a kid I had (still have) a fascination with Monorails and wondered if Oahu really wanted to propose a transit they could have built a monorail.

    Using straddle beams, derailment is virtually impossible. Since it’s elevated, accidents with surface traffic and pedestrians are impossible (unless the train derailed and landed on the road; again a highly unlikely scenario). Translates to less system down time, less liability suits and most importantly, a safer public. Street rail systems with grade crossings (light rail, trams, commuter rail or trollies) can’t approach this level of safety since foolhardy people often try to beat the speeding train at the crossing with disastrous results. Also underground rail is prohibitively expensive (tunneling through Hawaiian solid basalt) Running on rubber tires makes monorails relatively quiet compared to the loud clickety clack of metal on metal.

    Polls show monorails are the most aesthetically pleasing of all elevated rail systems. They could have named the system “Nani Pane” which in Hawaiian literally means “Beautiful Answer”. Their sleek design blends in with modern urban environments. But if need be, the pylons and track; which made of precast concrete can be made to accommodate whatever architectural style the system is meant to coexist with, including more classical ones…. https://earthtools.co.uk/images/category-heads/concrete-balustrade-samples/standard-balustrade-1.jpg

    Quick construction time results in less disruption to the surrounding environments, whether business or residential. Building heavy rail in the city means rerouting cables/lines and pipes, digging and businesses forfeiting revenue for the disruption caused by years of construction, light rail is no different. Customers can’t access their establishments during the long period of construction. Entire streets and underground utilities must be rebuilt to put in light rail. During light rail construction, there are always businesses that go under because customers can’t get to them. Simply put…dig a hole, drop in a pre-built support pylon, truck in the track which was manufactured offsite, lift into place! Monorail beamway can be installed far faster than the alternatives. The Las Vegas Mono only took Seven months to build (granted LV Monorail isn’t exactly financially good, but when Casinos offer it’s own alternative). Contractors and rail consultants love heavy rail. It keeps them busy for years and brings in the big bucks. You pay for it Mr. Taxpayer. As if that isn’t enough, operational costs of heavy rail are so high that Mr. Taxpayer (you again) have to subsidize it heavily for as long as it operates. Being electrically driven by a power provided from the rail, monorails don’t require the spider web of above ground power lines.

    Steel wheels on steel rail grind and wear. Therefore, both wheels and rail require far more care than monorail. This alone makes cost efficient impossible with heavy rail. Frequent vehicle breakdowns during operation also make heavy rail much less reliable than monorail. Monorails regularly operate amazingly at over 90% reliability. No other form of transit can touch that number. The rubber tires get little wear running on smooth guideways. Typically, each load tire gets over 100,000 miles of travel before being replaced and changing it’s tires is as simple as…..changing a tire.

    Now out of context monorail is too whimsical, Simply offering superior bus service would help to alleviate Oahu’s traffic concerns. One of the rare instances where BRT and dedicated lanes to buses may actually serve a purpose.

  2. LazyReader says:

    10 Billion dollars……that’s enough to buy everyone in Honolulu a new Chevrolet Cruze with enough left over to but 10,000 dollars worth a gas each.

  3. Not Sure says:

    Since they started construction in middle of farm lands 20 miles from downtown…

    Good idea if you expect cost overruns. Who says planners can’t plan?

  4. C. P. Zilliacus says:

    The Antiplanner wrote:

    New York City, with its 8.5 million people, can get away with spending a few billion on rail construction. But Honolulu only has 350,000 people, and though the FTA promised to pay $1.5 billion of the cost, the agreement it made with the transit agency was that local taxpayers would be 100 percent responsible for cost overruns. The city simply can’t afford to complete this line, at least not in the next decade or so.

    In my fantasy world, there would be no (federal) spending on new passenger rail transit lines outside of New York City and its nearby suburbs.

    This is one project that should be stopped even though they’ve already started construction. The environmental benefits of an electric-powered rail line are nil when more than 80 percent of the state’s electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels, mostly oil. The environmental impact statement showed that the line would increase, rather than decrease, congestion (before mitigation, but that mitigation could have been done without the rail line, thus reducing congestion and saving billions).

    Excellent observation. All too often, promoters of electric train lines talk about the “clean electric” energy that powers them. But the generating stations where that “clean electric” power comes from may not be so “clean,” as is the case on the islands of Hawaii.

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