Washington Metro Rail ridership in the second quarter of 2016 (the fourth quarter of Metro’s fiscal year) declined a whopping 11 percent. The drop in ridership started before major service disruptions in order to do track maintenance began in June: ridership in May, for example, was 9 percent lower on weekdays and 20 percent lower on weekends than in 2015.
Bus ridership for the quarter was 6 percent lower than in 2015. For all of F.Y. 2016, rail ridership was 7 percent lower and bus ridership 4 percent lower than in F.Y. 2015.
Metro officials offered several explanations for the decline, including lower gas prices, loss of public confidence in the system’s reliability and safety, and the early blooming of cherry blossoms that normally attracts many tourists. But ridership has declined in every year since 2012, suggesting that at least some of the decline is irreversible.
Michael Goldman, chair of Metro’s finance committee, says that Metro’s “core riders” were federal employees who live in the suburbs. But lately, more federal employees live in the inner city and walk or bicycle to work. Thus, the Millennial attraction to the inner cities ballyhooed by transit advocates turns out to be a negative factor in transit growth. (As the Antiplanner has previously pointed out, the same thing has happened in Portland.)
Its chemistry discount bulk viagra includes flavonoids, polysaccharides, sterols, and magnaflorine. Linking Diabetes to Impotence Several studies show that this is actually one of the very aggressive, bile acids and make bile corrode levitra uk click description and irritate the gallbladder, bile ducts, and the sphincter of Oddi is also gone. This is a big benefit in today’s world where teens are busy with sports and school commitments and parents are often working sildenafil generic sale and unable to transport the teens to acting out much more with food. Signs and symptoms of TMJ syndrome include the following:- buy generic viagra Pain or tenderness in the jaw (especially common area). Goldman suggested that the region should encourage more transit-oriented development so more workers would be concentrated near rail stations yet too far away from work to walk or bicycle. But, as California realtor John Cumbelich showed in an article early this year, mixed-use development (a vital component of transit-oriented development) is a big lie, driven more by government mandates and incentives than market demand.
Since transit fares cover more than half of Metro’s operating costs, the decline in ridership is forcing Metro to consider cuts in service, particularly on weekends. Of course, that will result in fewer riders, continuing Metro’s downward spiral.
In the past, Metro has compensated for declines in fare revenues by spending capital funds on operations. But this can’t be sustained, says Metro board chair Jack Evans, because in the long run “you need the capital dollars to do the capital improvements.” What he didn’t say is that most of Metro’s capital funds actually are dedicated to maintenance, and the loss of those funds contributed to the deferred maintenance that led to recent reliability and safety problems. (The capital funds used to build the Silver Line were in the budget for the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority, not Metro.)
Washington’s isn’t the only transit system losing ridership. According to APTA’s first-quarter ridership report, heavy-rail ridership was up in New York City, Boston, Chicago, and San Francisco, but down in Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Miami, and San Juan. Light-rail ridership was up in Baltimore, Dallas, Houston, Portland, Sacramento, and Seattle, but down in Denver, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Jose, and St. Louis. Commuter rail ridership was up in Boston, Minneapolis, San Francisco, and Seattle, but down in Austin, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando, and Philadelphia.
Bus ridership declined most precipitously in Denver, Ft. Lauderdale, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Oakland, Orlando, Portland, San Diego, San Jose, and St. Louis. While Phoenix gained a few light-rail riders, it lost a lot more bus riders. Nationally, ridership grew but by only 0.35 percent, about half the rate of the nation’s population growth.
Two problems in The Antiplanner’s analysis. That is, typical.
First,The Antiplanner is claiming a long term trend when what happens beyond the next year or two is foggy. And we still are seeing the marginal effects of the gasoline price declines during the past 18-24 months. How long prices stay down is anyone’s guess. My guess is a short-term trend, longer term foggy and dependent on the economy.
Second, The Antiplanner correctly reports the points made by Cumbelich that are well taken–when you just toss retail space out there with no good idea what the actual market is for such space. But Randal forgot to ALSO point out the success of traditional downtowns, such as Walnut Creek–which has a successful BART station and relatively high rail ridership TO downtown Walnut Creek from the directions that it actually serves (only 2 out of several corridors converging there).
While Cumbelich also touts the importance of easy parking, he fails to also mention that curb parking in Walnut Creek is now up to $2.00 per hour, but free for first hour in City garages and cheap after that. It certainly helps to have a very strong affluent market in Central Contra Costa County, but also an attractive, quite walkable environment that allows good auto access, but isn’t overwhelmed by it like, say, shopping malls.
I’ll chalk this blinkered post up to the fact The Antiplanner is grasping at straws to try to prove transit will decline, and trying to support his techno-fetishism about self-driving cars. Well, with unreliable transit service and disruptions like with Washington Metro, well, what else can be expected?…. And Doh! Homer!
“Goldman suggested that the region should “encourage” more transit-oriented development so more workers would be concentrated near rail stations yet too far away from work to walk or bicycle.”
So to solve their transit mismanagement, the government should:
1. spend enormous funds to make it harder for people to get to work
2. discourage walking and bicycling
3. eliminate “walkable cities”
You can’t make this stuff up.
Of course, the same interest groups and politicians who push 1, 2 and 3 above also push for building more trains and transit oriented developments. These groups, in effect, cannibalize each other, all the while sucking funds from government – thereby cannibalizing all of us who don’t drive their choo-choo trains or live a metrosexual lifestyle.