More on High Rises and Fertility Rates

The Antiplanner was first alerted to a tweet about South Korea’s low birth rate from Marginal Revolution, a blog from George Mason economists Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok. Being from George Mason, they lean libertarian, but haven’t learned enough about housing economics to realize that YIMBYism isn’t about housing affordability or property rights but about forcing more Americans to live in multi-family housing.

The ideal American city under YIMBYism. Photo of Seoul by Gerhard Huber.

So I appreciated it when Cowen mentioned my post on birth rates and high-rise housing in Marginal Revolution. They get a lot more readers than this blog, so it led to lots of comments. Continue reading

How to Kill a Country

Much of Seoul is a sea of high-rises. And not just Seoul: Busan and other cities in South Korea have lots of high rises. More than half of all South Korean households live in high rises, and well over 60 percent live in some kind of multifamily housing.

Seoul: High rises as far as the eye can see. Photo by Francesco Anzola.

South Korea also has the lowest birthrate of any country in the world. The latest numbers say the average woman has just 0.70 children in her lifetime. Birthrates need to be 2.1 per woman for a population to remain constant; at 0.70, South Korea will be almost totally depopulated in just three generations. Seoul’s birthrate is 0.64 and, due to an aging population, it will likely fall to 0.30 in the next ten years. Continue reading

Spending More to Get Less

Taxpayers are spending more to subsidize low-income housing and yet getting less. Since 1987, the biggest source of funds for affordable housing has been low-income housing tax credits, which offer billions of dollars in reduced taxes if they dedicate some of the housing they build to households earning less than 60 percent of the median incomes in their regions. These tax credits are given to state housing agencies based on each state’s population and the housing agencies grant them to developers through a competitive application process.

Source: LIHTC Database, Department of Housing and Urban Development, https://lihtc.huduser.gov.

As the above chart shows, the numbers of housing units built with such funds roughly kept pace with the annual subsidies until 2004. Then subsidies dramatically increased while the number of housing units built declined. Between the 2000s and 2010s, the average inflation-adjusted subsidy per housing unit grew by 125 percent. Since 1987, 30 states have created their own affordable housing tax credit programs as well as other housing subsidies, so when they are all added together it is likely that the subsidies per housing unit have grown even faster than shown in the chart. Continue reading

Who Benefits from Variable-Priced Road Tolls?

The Oregon Department of Transportation is planning to toll all lanes of major freeway in the Portland area soon. The San Francisco Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission is considering tolling all freeways in the region later this decade. Plans such as these always raise charges that they will heavily impact low-income drivers.

An electronic tollgate that collects tolls without slowing traffic. Photo by OnionBulb.

In response, the Antiplanner has argued that low-income people will greatly benefit from variable-priced tolling. While many taxes, including gas taxes, are regressive, tolling is not because people pay for only what they use. Congestion, however, is regressive because low-income people are less likely to be able to work at home or on flexible schedules that allow them to avoid rush hour. “If variable user fees can relieve that congestion, working-class people will be among the greatest beneficiaries.” Continue reading

Out for Growth

A new report on housing decries the fact that many unaffordable housing markets have gotten even less affordable in the last few years. The report’s solution is in the name of the organization that published it: Up for Growth, as in “grow up, not out.”

Click image to download a 24.0-MB PDF of this report.

The reports calls for cities to identify what neighborhoods to build in, “the appropriate increase in density for each location,” and the “optimal housing mix,” in other words, the mix of single-family vs. multifamily housing, for each neighborhood. Where people actually want to live and whether they prefer to live in single- or multifamily housing are not to be considered. Continue reading

The Case Against Affordable Housing

Affordable housing projects aren’t making housing more affordable. In fact, says a new study by an MIT economist, construction of new subsidized housing displaces new unsubsidized housing for little net gain in the housing supply. Specifically, the study found, ten new subsidized housing units resulted in eight fewer unsubsidized units.

This is supposed to be an affordable housing project, yet it is already unaffordable because it is six stories high, which costs at least twice as much to build, per square foot, as two-story construction.

Between 1950 and 1986, most subsidized housing was built by government agencies. In 1986, a Republican Congress sought to “privatize” the construction of subsidized housing by giving developers tax credits if they promised to rent their housing at below-market prices for 30 years. Today, low-income housing tax credits worth around $10 billion a year are given to the states to hand out to developers. To see how well this program is working, economist Evan Soltas looked at hundreds of projects built with tax credits. Continue reading

The Affordable Housing Industrial Complex

Early this week, Grassroot Institute executive director Keli’i Akina interviewed the Antiplanner about affordable housing, why it costs more than regular housing, and why the Hawaii Housing Finance & Development agency refuses to release records that would help the public understand where their money is going. The interview was posted on YouTube late Wednesday evening.

Affordable housing is a nationwide scam and Hawaii is far from the worst offender. As the state with the second-least-affordable housing in the nation, however, local politicians are prone to promoting affordable housing subsidies as the solution to housing affordability problems, which doesn’t work as they are two different issues. The Antiplanner suggests that affordable housing subsidies should solely be in the form of vouchers directly to low-income people, not subsidies to developers who build costly projects at taxpayers’ expense.

More Apartments Won’t Make Housing Affordable

“After a decade of building 8,000 apartments in Oakland, market rate 1-bedroom units are now affordable to low income people,” says a Bay Area writer named Joshua Davis. The implication is that the 8,000 apartments had something to do with Oakland become more affordable. It didn’t.

Cities all over the country are building apartments, many of them subsidized with so-called affordable housing funds. The mid-rise and high-rise apartments that aren’t subsidized aren’t going to rent for affordable prices because they are far more expensive to build than single-family homes. Continue reading

Pandemic Increases Homeownership, Single-Family

The share of homes owned by their occupants grew from 64.1 percent in 2019 to 65.2 percent in 2022, according to data from the American Community Survey. The share of homes that were single-family increased slightly from 68.6 percent to 68.6 percent.

The share of people living in owner-occupied homes grew from 66.4 percent in 2019 to 68.4 percent in 2022, while the share of people living in single-family homes grew from 73.6 percent in 2019 to 74.2 percent in 2022. Continue reading

Where Housing Is Still Affordable

The median home value of homes in the United States was $320,900 in 2022 while the median family income was $92,148 according to the 2022 American Community Survey. This means that the median home cost less than 3.5 times median family income, which is pretty affordable. Even at today’s relatively high interest rates, someone getting a mortgage that is 3.5 times their income should be able to pay it off in well under 30 years while paying less than 30 percent of their income on the mortgage.

Value-to-income ratios ranged from well over 10 in Los Angeles and several other California cities to under 1.5 in Decatur Illinois and several Illinois counties. The states with the least affordable housing are Hawaii and California followed by Washington and Oregon — all states with urban-growth boundaries and other rural land-use restrictions. The most affordable states are Indiana, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, West Virginia, and Mississippi. Continue reading