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Monthly Archives: March 2021

The National Academy of Wishful Thinking

By | | Transportation
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Democrats want to build more transit infrastructure in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The only problem is that transit emits as much or more greenhouse gases, per passenger mile, as the average car. In fact, transit is less climate friendly than driving in all but a handful of cities.

Now, a new report from the Transit Cooperative Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences attempts to quantify how much greenhouse gas emissions transit can save. Using data from the American Public Transportation Association, the report observes that each passenger mile carried by transit represents a reduction of just 0.329 vehicle miles of automobile travel (page 14). Apparently, about 60 percent of those transit trips would, in the absence of transit, otherwise be walking or cycling trips or would not take place at all.

That means that transit is a huge net generator of greenhouse gases. In 2018, the average car emitted 202 grams of carbon dioxide per passenger mile. In 2019, transit did better than that only in the New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Portland urban areas. The average light truck emitted about 241 grams; transit did better than that only in the above urban areas plus Atlanta, Boston, and San Jose. Continue reading →

Mileage-Based User Fees for Highway Finance

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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Six years ago, the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) announced that it was inviting up to 5,000 people to voluntarily join its mileage-based user fee program. The Antiplanner rushed to be among the first to apply, which turned out to be unnecessary as, after two years, only 745 vehicles were participating in the program.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

That number is likely to increase soon, as the state has imposed a stiff vehicle-registration fee on electric and other fuel-efficient cars, a fee people can waive if they add their car to the mileage-based fee program. Annual fees for electric cars will go from $20 to $153; fees for cars rated to get better than 40 miles per gallon jump from $20 to $76 per year. Continue reading →

A Stagecoach-Age Monorail for Los Angeles

By | | Transportation
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Nearly a year ago, an Antiplanner policy brief made fun of the many science fiction stories that portrayed monorails as the transportation of the future. The Antiplanner pointed out that monorails date back to the nineteenth century and are an ugly, slow, and often noisy form of transit.

An artist’s impression of what a monorail over LA’s I-405 freeway would look like. Note that the image accurately shows that the monorail has failed to relieve congestion on the freeway. Image from LA Skyrail Express.

So naturally Los Angeles is planning a monorail, which Forbes magazine gushes is “space-age” travel. More like stagecoach-age travel, as a monorail was used at the 1876 American centennial celebration in Philadelphia. Continue reading →

What’s the Point of Transit Subsidies?

By | | Transportation
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Rather than figure out how they can best serve the public in a post-COVID world, many transit agencies have not yet “grasped the significance of the challenges facing public transportation and many have focused attention on asking for federal resources to ‘carry them through’ the impacts of COVID-19,” writes transit expert Steven Polzin in a report released yesterday by the Reason Foundation. “Others are busy redefining the performance metrics and expectations of public transportation to justify unconditional federal funding,” he adds in the report, Public Transportation Must Change after COVID-19.

For example, he cites Bloomberg CityLab writer David Zipper, who says that since transit ridership is likely to remain low for years, “public transportation leaders should focus on a different metric for usefulness: transit access.” In other words, transit agencies should ask funders to accept the performance standards that make transit look good, not the standards that actually make sense.

Polzin is not as negative about transit as the Antiplanner. “The core goals of public transportation — providing mobility particularly for those without alternative means and capturing the economy of mass movement of people in markets where those conditions exist — remain important,” he argues. But do they? With transit costing five times as much, per passenger mile, as auto driving before the pandemic, it certainly hasn’t captured any economies of mass movement. Continue reading →

What Would Billions for Rail Buy Us?

By | | Transportation
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Last year’s Moving Forward Act, which was passed by the House but not the Senate, would have included $29 billion for Amtrak over six years, about triple what Amtrak has been getting. As the Moving Forward Act proposed to spend about $1.5 trillion and Biden’s vague infrastructure plan is supposed to cost $3.0 trillion, some people assume that plan will include about $60 billion for Amtrak and high-speed rail.

That wouldn’t be enough to complete the California high-speed rail project, must less build a real national high-speed rail network. As I’ve noted before, the cost of such a network would be in the trillions. High-speed rail supporters hope to get projects going in a couple of states that will make members of Congress from other states demand high-speed rail money for their states or districts.

What will travelers get out of all this spending? The 328 million Americans in 2019 traveled almost 15,000 miles by automobile, 2,300 miles by commercial airliner, 164 miles by public transit (of which 50 miles is by bus), and 19 miles by Amtrak. The official number for all bus, including transit, intercity, charter, school, and so forth, is 1,100 miles per capita, but I suspect the real number is 400 (350 for non-transit buses). Walking and cycling are officially 100 and 26 miles, but this only includes trips that have destination such as work or shops; when recreation and exercise trips are included, they are probably at least double that. That brings total per capita travel to about 18,000 miles. Continue reading →

Patsies for Corporate Welfare

By | | Transportation
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On April 7, our loyal opponents at the American Public Transportation Association are holding a virtual conference on high-speed rail. The conference is sponsored by several companies that expect to profit enormously if the United States builds high-speed rail, including:

  • Alstom, a French manufacturer of rail cars for French and Italian high-speed trains, as well as conventional and transit rail cars for, among others, Honolulu, Ottawa, and many other cities;
  • Systra, a government-owned French engineering firm that does the engineering for new TGV routes as well as for French transit lines;
  • HDR, an American engineering company that talked many cities into building streetcar lines by falsely claiming that the streetcars would lead to economic development; and
  • HNTB, another American engineering firm that has help build or rebuild rail transit lines in Boston, Chicago, Dallas, and other cities.

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The environmental impacts of high-speed rail: An 80-foot right-of-way times 8,600 miles is 130 square miles of land disrupted by rail construction; times 20,000 miles is 300 square miles of disrupted land. Photo from the California High-Speed Rail Authority. Continue reading →

Housing Affordability and the Pandemic

By | | Housing, Policy brief
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The median price of homes in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, grew by $100,000 in February, reports the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. That means prices were growing by $25,000 a week. The good news is that these are New Zealand dollars, which are only worth about 72 cents U.S., which means prices grew by “only” US$18,000 a week. The bad news is Auckland’s median prices had already reached $1 million (U.S.$720,000) in January, so February’s price increase was only about 10 percent.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Like many American cities with sky-high housing prices, Auckland has an urban-growth boundary, locally known as the Metropolitan Urban Limit, which it adopted in 1998. Advocates claimed that this limit would reduce transportation, utilities, and other costs. Ten years later a former Auckland city planner could only say that the limit was successful because it contained growth within the limit. That’s like saying schools are successful because they contain children. Continue reading →

Reinventing the Jet Airliner

By | | Transportation
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Suppose I told you that I have reinvented the jet airliners that carried Americans more than 750 billion passenger miles–about 10 percent of all passenger travel–in 2019. My reinvented jet will go less than half as fast as existing jets. It will cost six times as much to operate, per passenger mile, as existing jets. Unlike existing jets, which can go anywhere there is air, the reinvented jet will only be able to go on a limited number of fixed routes.

The reinvented jet airliner: less than half the speed, more than six times the cost, and doesn’t go where you want to go. Photo by Cobaltum.

This wondrous invention will become a reality if the federal government spends a mere one, two, or possibly three or four trillion dollars. Does that sound like a good deal? No? Yet that is exactly what high-speed rail advocates are proposing. Some proposals, such as the Green New Deal, even call for almost completely replacing low-cost, fast jet airliners with high-cost, relatively slow trains. Continue reading →

January 2021 Driving Down by 11.7 Percent

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove 88.7 percent as many miles in January 2021 as in the same month of 2020, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. That’s down slightly from 89.7 percent in December.

Looking at the above chart, it is amazing how stable everything has become. Driving has hovered within 2 percentage points of 89 percent since June. Transit has hovered within 2 percentage points of 36 percent since July. Flying has hovered within 4 percentage points of 36 percent since September. With the exception of September when it reached 31 percent, Amtrak has hovered within 4 percentage points of 26 percent since June. Continue reading →

Ok, Zoomer

By | | Transportation
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A 20-year-old woman named Cara sent out a tweet showing a map of a high-speed rail plan that someone with no sense made eight years ago with the comment, “I want her so fucking much.” She got 185,000 likes and 50,000 retweets, so Vox concluded that Generation Z (also known as zoomers) is sold on high-speed rail.

The high-speed rail map endorsed by Cara. Click image to read the Antiplanner’s comments on the map when it was released in 2013.

Of course, not everyone who liked or retweeted Cara’s tweet is necessarily a member of Gen Z, nor are zoomers (who number more than 60 million) necessarily accurately represented by 235,000 likes and retweets. But I remember when I was 20 years old and loved passenger trains and was convinced there was an evil conspiracy to kill them off, even though I personally hadn’t ridden on very many of them because they were too expensive. I suspect Cara is just as naive today. Continue reading →