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Monthly Archives: July 2021

Transit Spin Doctors Hard at Work

By | | Transportation
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The transit industry is terrible at accurately predicting future costs and ridership. It is terrible at cost-effectively moving people. But it is very good at one thing: spin.

When the pandemic dropped ridership by more than 80 percent, did the industry say, “I guess we aren’t needed right now; you can cut our subsidies”? No! It said, “We are carrying essential workers to their jobs, therefore you must increase our subsidies.”

Now that ridership is slowly recovering, is the industry saying, “we are now carrying only 42 percent of pre-pandemic levels, so you can cut our subsidies”? No! Instead it is saying, “Ridership of some agencies has increased by as much as 80 percent, so you must increase our subsidies!” Continue reading →

Senate Passes $550 Billion Infrastructure Bill

By | | Transportation
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With support from 17 Republicans and 50 Democrats, the Senate passed a bill that includes:

  • $110 billion for roads and bridges;
  • $11 billion for “road safety,” which probably means anti-auto programs like complete streets;
  • $39 billion for transit;
  • $66 billion for rail (mostly Amtrak);
  • $15 billion for electric vehicle infrastructure and electric buses for transit agencies;
  • $1 billion for “reconnecting neighborhoods,” another anti-auto program;
  • $25 billion for airports;
  • $17 billion for ports;
  • $55 billion for drinking water;
  • $65 billion for broadband; and
  • $73 billion for clean energy infrastructure.

Continue reading →

Who Is to Blame for HS2?

By | | Transportation
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HS2, a high-speed rail line from London to northern England, was projected to cost £32.7 billion in 2011 pounds, or about £40 billion in today’s money. After the Conservative Party-run government approved the line in 2012, costs ballooned to the current estimate of £106 billion, a 165 percent increase. The final cost will probably be even more.

HS2 is supposed to be built in two phases: phase 1 from London to Birmingham and phase 2 from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds.

Liberals such as the Guardian blame the fiasco on the Conservative government, but they forget that they supported the rail line since the beginning while current Conservative Party leader and prime minister Boris Johnson opposed it. The Guardian cites a report from the National Audit Office that says the government failed to account for the risks and likelihood that the original estimates were too low, something that would have been true of any government that approved the project. Continue reading →

Cost Overruns and Ridership Shortfalls

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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Rail transit projects built in the United States typically suffer severe cost overruns and end up carrying far fewer riders than originally projected. The latest studies published by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) indicate that the projections made for some recent projects are better than those made in the past. However, this is partly because the FTA has changed its definition of “cost overrun” and partly because the FTA has not yet looked at some projects that we know have huge overruns, such as the Honolulu rail project.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

The Department of Transportation first looked at this issue in a 1990 report by Don Pickrell, who looked at four heavy rail, four light rail, and two automated guideway (“people mover”) projects in nine cities. On average, Pickrell found, building these projects ended up costing 62 percent more than projected, operating them cost 130 percent more than projected, and ridership was 47 percent less than projected. Continue reading →

Transit Workers Overpaid

By | | Transportation
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Transit workers in many cities get paid more than twice as much as private sector employees working in transportation, according to a new report from the Heritage Foundation. The report compared average pay by major transit agencies in Atlanta, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington with the average pay for all workers and the pay for transport workers in those regions.

Transit Premium Over Other Workers in Same Region

CityAll WorkersTransport Workers
Atlanta11.7%58.8%
Chicago31.4%77.1%
New York50.1%27.1%
Philadelphia39.7%109.7%
San Francisco61.0%147.8%
Washington31.5%121.1%

As shown in the table, Heritage Foundation researcher David Ditch calculated that average transit pay is anywhere from 12 to 61 percent greater than average pay for all workers in these regions and 59 to 148 percent more than average pay for transport workers. There are a couple of caveats, however. Continue reading →

Urban Sociopaths

By | | Housing
45 Comments

Sociopaths are people who “have no regard for others’ rights or feelings, lack empathy and remorse for wrongdoings, and have the need to exploit and manipulate others.” That definition perfectly fits New Urban planners and the environmentalists who support them.

I could be referring to planners eager to inflict congestion on commuters in order to persuade a few of them to take transit. But today I’m referring to planners eager to drive up housing prices in order to force more people to live in multifamily housing. Continue reading →

Electric Bus Dreams in Shambles

By | | Transportation
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Philadelphia’s electric transit buses are in a “complete shambles” as a result of poor design and poor quality construction. The buses, which were proudly displayed at the 2016 National Democratic Convention, have broken frames, broken batteries, and other problems, and have been totally withdrawn from service.

Proterra electric buses similar to this one were withdrawn from service in Philadelphia as the weight of the batteries led to cracked frames and the battery range turned out to be significantly less than the manufacturer promised. Photo by SounderBruce.

Although transit advocates like to claim that transit is environmentally friendly, a dirty secret of the transit industry is that buses use 50 percent more energy and emitted 50 percent more greenhouse gases per passenger mile than the average car. That’s based on 2019 data; in 2020, the numbers will be much worse. Continue reading →

Dems Admit Highway Hostility

By | | Transportation
10 Comments

Democrats looking to the 2022 election must worry that some of their number are working so hard to alienate the vast majority of American voters. As noted in Politico, members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, led by the Antiplanner’s own congressman, Peter DeFazio, are openly hostile to American’s favorite form of travel.

“You can’t pave over the whole country,” says DeFazio, whose INVEST Act, which recently passed the House, contains provisions that would severely restrict the ability of state to spend federal highway dollars on new highways. Yet highways occupy a vanishingly small share of the nation’s land area, and the idea that there is any danger to them paving over the whole country is just fear mongering.

Americans use highways for 87 percent of their personal travel while Amtrak and transit, which DeFazio and friends favor, provide just 1 percent of passenger-miles. There are good reasons for this: motor vehicles and highways are cheap, convenient, and fast relative to the Democrats’ alternatives. So it’s not surprising that 92 percent of American households own at least one car, 96 percent of American workers live in a household with at least one car, and at least a third of the 4 percent of American workers who live in households without cars nonetheless get to work by automobile. Continue reading →

The War on Cars and Delays to Emergency Response

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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By Kathleen St. Germain

Traffic calming. Road diets. Complete streets. Vision zero. All these terms refer to policies whose goal is to reduce automobile speeds by narrowing or removing vehicle lanes and increasing congestion. Cities say they are adopting these programs to increase safety for all users of the street, yet they have no evidence that the policies will actually reduce pedestrian, cyclist, and other traffic-related deaths.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

When confronted with facts showing that many of the design changes in their plans may result or have resulted in increased accidents, they either turn a blind eye or address their concerns for potential liability by imposing more heavy-handed solutions for delay-inducing schemes. The answer to unraveling the confusion in the new designs of “traffic calming” is to create separate signalization for vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists, delaying drivers even more, but for which, only drivers will be held accountable with fines. Continue reading →

$117 Billion to Save “Almost an Hour”: Who Cares?

By | | Transportation
4 Comments

Before the pandemic, two people commuted from Podunk, Michigan to Detroit, a drive of about one hour. If someone built them a high-speed rail line, they could save nearly half an hour, assuming they don’t decide to work at home. Of course, the fares they pay would never come close to covering the $6 billion cost of building the rail line, but who cares about the cost per rider?

“Who cares?” seems to be the attitude of the Northeast Corridor Commission, which consists of Amtrak and the commuter rail agencies that run trains on part of the Boston-to-Washington rail system. Where its 2010 master plan called for spending $52 billion in the corridor, the 2021 plan demands $117 billion to keep running trains in the corridor. But who cares about the increased cost? Continue reading →