How Public Transit Won’t Lure Riders Back

Everybody knows that the purpose of living in cities is to keep public transit systems operating. Thus, says Bloomberg News, people who work at home are “threatening” transit for everyone else (meaning all of the 1 percenters who ride transit).

Not to worry. Someone named Kristin Schwab, over at Marketplace, has a plan to “lure riders back” to transit. (Is that like luring little kids with candy?) Transit is safe from COVID, she claims, but to overcome public perceptions that it is not, transit agencies should still require people to wear masks and regularly clean transit vehicles. Okay, that’s not so much a plan as it is wishful thinking.

Back at Bloomberg, San Francisco writers Tiffany Chu and Daniel Ramot say that we should fix transit by (1) giving it dedicated funding, meaning funding that transit agencies are sure to get no matter how poorly they perform; and (2) tie funding to outcomes, meaning transit agencies only get money if they produce results. These contradictory suggestions are made worse by the “outcomes” Chu and Ramot suggest, including “expanding access to jobs, improving cost efficiency, driving equity and reducing carbon emissions.” Continue reading

March 2021 Transit Ridership Down 59%

Public transit carried 33 percent fewer riders in March 2021 than in March 2020 and 59 percent fewer than in March 2019, according to data published yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. Since the pandemic started having an effect on transit in March 2020, we have to go back to 2019 to compare with pre-pandemic levels.

All forms of transport are recovering but some have recovered more than others. March driving data are approximate; actual numbers should be released in a week or so.

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Transit Is Not Resilient

“Transit is resilient,” claims transit industry consultant Paul Comfort, who is also executive director of the North American Transit Alliance, an association of private companies that earn money providing service to transit agencies. Comfort made this claim after visiting several transit agencies to see how they were spending the billions of dollars Congress gave them to compensate for the loss of ridership during the pandemic.

I don’t think that word means what Comfort wants us to think it means. The dictionary defines “resilient” as tending to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change. The panicky press releases sent out a year ago by transit agencies and advocates do not suggest that an industry that adjusts easily to change. Comfort’s examples of agency “resilience” are mostly about how they are spending the money Congress gave them on masks, sanitizers, and, for some reason, complete streets. He says nothing about actual ridership or other real performance measures. Here are a few tests that can be used to tell if an industry or institution is resilient.

1. Does the industry need a big bailout every time there is a downturn in the economy? Continue reading

A Shared Love for Obsolete Transportation

Transit ridership at the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) has declined in every year since Nuria Fernandez was made CEO of San Jose’s principle transit agency at the end of 2013. By 2019, transit fares collected by VTA covered just 9 percent of operating costs, far lower than the national average of 32 percent. VTA light-rail cars carried an average of just 14 passengers, compared with a national average of 24. Most San Jose light-rail “trains” are just one car long, meaning they could easily be replaced by buses at a huge savings to taxpayers.

VTA light rail: a model of government waste. Notice the HOV lanes that could have supported buses carrying more people to more destinations than the light-rail line.

Before Fernandez arrived, VTA had spent billions of dollars building a light-rail system that did nothing but jeopardize the agency’s finances, which in turn contributed to the dramatic decline in ridership: Between 2002 and 2019, the region’s population grew by 15 percent yet transit ridership fell by 29 percent. While she didn’t make the decision to build those light-rail lines, she is proud that she was able to get federal funding to help build a subway line into downtown San Jose. Continue reading

The CTA Wants You

No one expects transit agencies to work very hard to provide safe, efficient services taking people where they need to go. But sometimes urban residents need a reminder that it is their job to rearrange their lives and risk their health and safety to insure that transit has enough riders to justify the huge subsidies it receives.

At least, that’s the opinion of Chicago Sun-Time columnist Laura Washington, who urges Chicago residents to “get on the L or bus. Or both.” After all, she reasons, “If riders don’t return to the CTA [Chicago Transit Authority], Metra [commuter trains] and Pace [suburban buses], look for layoffs, service cuts and hefty fare hikes.” Her view is enthusiastically endorsed by Streetsblog Chicago.

The latest data — compiled several days after Washington wrote her article telling people they had to risk getting COVID in order to save transit — indicate that less than 20 percent of Illinois residents and less than 18 percent of Cook County (Chicago) residents have been fully vaccinated. But apparently that’s no reason to hesitate taking transit. Continue reading

February Transit Ridership Down 66.2 Percent

Light is visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel: millions of people are being vaccinated each day and many are going back to work. But that light isn’t shining on transit agencies, as ridership in February, 2021 was only 33.8 percent of the same month in 2020, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is down from 34.3 percent in January.

Measured as a percent of 2020, Amtrak data show that rail passenger miles picked up slightly in February and airline passenger numbers from the Transportation Security Administration also increased, but transit ridership fell. Driving data won’t be out for another week or so.

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A Bus Driver’s Life Is Worth $16,200

The state of California has fined the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) $16,200 for health and safety violations that may have led to the death of a bus driver, Audrey Lopez, from coronavirus last October. The state claims VTA failed to “require or ensure the use of face coverings at all times by employees at the facility and while operating the buses.” It also didn’t provide effective training instruction to employees on how to prevent the spread of the virus.

Naturally, VTA claims that Lopez didn’t catch the virus while on the job. But union president John Courtney says that Lopez had not been anywhere where she would have been exposed to the virus, other than work, in the days before she called in sick.

The transit industry insists that transit is safe to ride during the pandemic. However, the Centers for Disease Control says that air filtration systems must have a minimum efficiency reporting value (MERV) rating of 13 to filter out the virus. The filters used in VTA buses are rated 4, good enough to filter out pollen but not good enough to stop the virus. Continue reading

The National Academy of Wishful Thinking

Democrats want to build more transit infrastructure in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The only problem is that transit emits as much or more greenhouse gases, per passenger mile, as the average car. In fact, transit is less climate friendly than driving in all but a handful of cities.

Now, a new report from the Transit Cooperative Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences attempts to quantify how much greenhouse gas emissions transit can save. Using data from the American Public Transportation Association, the report observes that each passenger mile carried by transit represents a reduction of just 0.329 vehicle miles of automobile travel (page 14). Apparently, about 60 percent of those transit trips would, in the absence of transit, otherwise be walking or cycling trips or would not take place at all.

That means that transit is a huge net generator of greenhouse gases. In 2018, the average car emitted 202 grams of carbon dioxide per passenger mile. In 2019, transit did better than that only in the New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Portland urban areas. The average light truck emitted about 241 grams; transit did better than that only in the above urban areas plus Atlanta, Boston, and San Jose. Continue reading

What’s the Point of Transit Subsidies?

Rather than figure out how they can best serve the public in a post-COVID world, many transit agencies have not yet “grasped the significance of the challenges facing public transportation and many have focused attention on asking for federal resources to ‘carry them through’ the impacts of COVID-19,” writes transit expert Steven Polzin in a report released yesterday by the Reason Foundation. “Others are busy redefining the performance metrics and expectations of public transportation to justify unconditional federal funding,” he adds in the report, Public Transportation Must Change after COVID-19.

For example, he cites Bloomberg CityLab writer David Zipper, who says that since transit ridership is likely to remain low for years, “public transportation leaders should focus on a different metric for usefulness: transit access.” In other words, transit agencies should ask funders to accept the performance standards that make transit look good, not the standards that actually make sense.

Polzin is not as negative about transit as the Antiplanner. “The core goals of public transportation — providing mobility particularly for those without alternative means and capturing the economy of mass movement of people in markets where those conditions exist — remain important,” he argues. But do they? With transit costing five times as much, per passenger mile, as auto driving before the pandemic, it certainly hasn’t captured any economies of mass movement. Continue reading

Applying Value Engineering to Transit Projects

In 1997, Tidewater Regional Transit—which served Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia—proposed to build an 18-mile light-rail line between the two cities. Virginia Beach voters, however, rejected the plan. So, in 2000, the transit agency (which since 1999 had been known as Hampton Roads Transit) decided to build 7.4 miles from downtown Norfolk to the Norfolk-Virginia Beach city limit. In 2003, the project was estimated to cost less than $200 million and attract 10,500 riders a day.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Few places were less suited to rail transit, which is mainly designed to bring lots of commuters into job-rich downtowns. Although the Hampton Roads area has nearly 1.5 million people, it doesn’t have any large job-filled downtowns. According to Wendell Cox’s analysis of central business districts, downtown Norfolk had fewer than 25,000 jobs in the mid- to late-2000s, and fewer than 800 of them took transit to work. Continue reading