Music City Sinkhole Disrupts Few Commuters

Almost no one was affected when a sinkhole opened up under the tracks used by the Music City Star, one of the more pathetic commuter trains in the United States. The sinkhole prevented trains from reaching downtown Nashville, though trains continued to operate between the suburb of Lebanon, which has less than 40,000 residents, and the Nashville neighborhood of Donelson, which has about 30,000 residents.

This photo of the Music City Sinkhole is courtesy of Wego Public Transit.
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In 2019, the Music City Star, Nashville’s commuter train, carried just 1,115 riders or 558 roundtrips per weekday. As of August, 2021, ridership was down 84 percent from 2019 levels, so only about 90 people per day are affected by the sinkhole. Nashville should use the sinkhole as an excuse to replace the train with buses. Commuter buses in the region cost between a third and half as much to operate per vehicle-mile as the train and can easily carry the number of people riding the trains, which averaged just 23 people per railcar before the epidemic.

The Oddity of Public Transit

“An oddity of American public transit,” says Strong Towns, a semi-New Urbanist organization dedicated to compact cities and transit, “is the prevalence of commuter rail lines designed to do one thing and one thing only: bring 9-5 office workers to and from downtown.” The Facebook post then links to an article in Governing magazine titled, Taking the Commuter out of Commuter Rail, which claims the huge decline in commuter-rail ridership is an “opportunity to reinvent the suburb-city service.”

CalTrain is a classic example of Type 1 commuter rail, having once been operated by Southern Pacific. In 2019 fares covered 75 percent of its operating costs and it used less energy per passenger mile than a Toyota Prius. But as of June its ridership was down 88 percent. Photo by Runner1928.

Before critiquing these ideas, it is important to point out that there are really two kinds of “commuter-rail” operations; call them Type 1 and Type 2. Type 1 is traditional big-city commuter trains, which were usually started by private railroads in the nineteenth century and were taken over by government agencies in the 1960s and 1970s. These brought suburban workers into downtown Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. This is the commuter rail that Strong Towns and Governing are writing about. Continue reading

No One’s Riding Trains So Spend More

Amtrak ridership is down more than 75 percent. Commuter-rail ridership is down more than 80 percent. So naturally Amtrak and commuter-rail agencies want more money to expand service.

Commuter train in Utah. Photo by Paul Kimo McGregor.

Amtrak wants to resume service on a route from New Orleans to Jacksonville, or possibly just to Mobile, that had been dropped after Hurricane Katrina. The renewed route would begin operating in 2022 with full federal funding of operating costs for the first year. The implication is that Amtrak is demanding that Alabama and other states provide some of the funding after that. Proponents claim a 15-to-1 benefit-cost ratio. It’s more like 1-to-15. Their legislatures should say no. Continue reading

Transit Subsidies of $108 Per Ride

Yesterday, the Antiplanner predicted that at some point people would realize that transit is a waste. That point may have already been reached in Portland, which has voted down new taxes for transit the last four times they have been on the ballot. Moreover, on Monday a Portland television station reported that TriMet, Portland’s transit agency, is spending $108 to subsidize each and every ride on the Westside Express Service (WES).

The report quotes the Cascade Policy Institute‘s John Charles as saying, “They should just admit it was a mistake.” Even a representative of the Association of Oregon Rail and Transit Advocates agrees that “it’s too expensive.” Continue reading

Electrification Cost Shocks Caltrain

Electrifying the commuter trains between San Francisco and San Jose not only cost $2 billion, it will increase the cost of operating those trains by 33 percent. When seeking federal funding for part of the capital cost, local officials called the route “overburdened” and said that electrification would increase capacity. Today, the route is carrying just 6 percent as many riders as it did before the pandemic, and since it is likely that many of those passengers will never return, the new capacity probably isn’t needed.

As I’ve previously noted, the real reason California wanted to electrify the train was as a hidden subsidy to the San Francisco-Los Angeles high-speed trains. Those trains needed to be electrified and if the cost of doing so could be counted against the commuter trains it would make the high-speed rail project look less expensive than it really was.

The problem with that was that the state had promised to run trains between San Francisco and Los Angeles in two-and-two-thirds hours, which would require faster trains than the commuter trains. Since 220-mph trains can’t safely run on the same tracks as 50-mph trains, the original plan was to build brand-new high-speed rail tracks between San Jose and San Francisco. Cost overruns and revenue shortfalls made that impossible, so California officials came up with the idea of running the high-speed trains on the same tracks as the commuter trains, which would make it impossible to run them fast enough to keep the promise of SF-LA run times of 2:40. Continue reading

More Good Money After Bad in New Mexico

New Mexico’s Rail Runner has lost 38 percent of its riders since 2012 and is on course to making it 40 percent in 2019. Rio Metro, which operates the trains, is scrambling to find the $55 million it needs to install positive train control, as required by federal law, but remains $20 million short.

Abandoned station on the Rail Runner line. Click image for Wikipedia article. Photo by John Phelan.

A new report published by the state legislative finance committee offers a proposal in response to these problems: transit-oriented development. Although the report reveals that many of the communities along the rail line have zoned land for transit-oriented development, none has come about except in Santa Fe, and even there the development is minimal and required tens of millions of dollars in public subsidies. Continue reading

Ft. Worth Rail Boondoggle Opens This Week

The Fort Worth Transit Authority, also known as Trinity Metro, will open TEXRail, a new commuter-rail line from downtown Ft. Worth to the Dallas-Ft. Worth Airport, at the end of this week. Built at a cost of more than a billion dollars, the line is expected to carry an average of 4,000 round trips per weekday in its first year. It probably will fall short.

When the project first appears in the Federal Transit Administration’s New Starts reports, for 2014 (but based on 2012 data), it was supposed to be 38 miles long, cost under a billion dollars, and attract nearly 10,000 weekday riders (5,000 round trips) in its first year of operation. By 2016 the cost had risen to well over a billion despite chopping off 11 miles west of downtown Ft. Worth, leaving just 27. This pushed projected first-year ridership down to 8,300 weekday trips (4,150 round trips).

Now that the money has been spent and it is too late to do anything about it, the transit authority is projected TEXRail will carry 8,000 riders per weekday, probably low-balling the 8,300 figure in case ridership falls short. And it is likely to fall short, as the Trinity Railway Express, a 34-mile commuter-rail line from Ft. Worth to Dallas, carried only 7,400 weekday riders in 2017, a number that has dropped by nearly 1,000 since 2014. Continue reading

Dumb Trains

Economist Mike Arnold argues that the Sonoma-Marin “SMART” commuter train is “falling short of its promises,” and those who say it is doing well are using “alternative facts” (or, as Colbert would say, “truthiness”). Among other things, he says that, of 26 commuter rail operations in the U.S., SMART’s ridership ranks only number 23.

That might not be fair considering that many commuter rail systems operate over far greater distances than SMART, whose line is 43 miles long. For a better idea of how the SMART train stacks up, I compiled data for other new commuter-rail operations below. I left out legacy operations in New York, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, and CalTrains in San Francisco as these are all going to do far better than most of the new ones. I also left out Amtrak’s Downeaster, which is an intercity (Boston-Portland) train that the FTA includes in its database as it has received from FTA funding. I included lines the FTA calls “hybrid rail” such as trains in Austin and Portland as the local transit agencies often call these commuter rail. All of the data are from the 2017 National Transit Database except for the SMART train, which didn’t begin operating until FY 2018; for this I took data from Arnold’s article.

TrainWeekday
Trips
Route
Miles
Trips/
Mile
PM/VRM
(Occupancy)
LA Metrolink51,27634015132
FL TriRail13,9997618434
DFW Trinity7,4132827025
DC-Virginia19,0029121059
DC-Maryland34,09723614542
Seattle Sounder17,2178021758
SD Coaster4,970519828
MSP North Star2,819358235
Denver A Line20,9562874836
Orlando SunRail3,4131621320
SCL FrontRunner17,5846029323
Nashville Star1,082176623
NM Rail Runner2,825575028
Altamont4,985717051
NJ River Line8,6332830531
SD Sprinter8,2671650932
Portland WES1,7981512223
Austin MetroRail2,904329043
DFW A-Train1,841218814
SMART2,4004356~15

Continue reading

Riding the Rail Runner

After speaking about Romance of the Rails in Albuquerque Friday night, I took advantage of a day off between engagements to ride the New Mexico Rail Runner to Santa Fe and back. This train is costing the state close to $800 million in capital costs including interest (which works out to annual payments of about $30 million a year) plus another $30 million a year in operations and maintenance costs, while it is bringing in slightly more than $2 million a year in fares. The federal government also recently gave the state another $30 million to install positive train control.

Click any photo for a larger view.

The Albuquerque train station has a large memorial commemorating the end of the first, second, and third years of Rail Runner service in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Though there is plenty of room for more plaques, perhaps the state gave up on annual celebrations because they were embarrassed by poor ridership. Continue reading

Paying for New Jersey Transit

Delays to commuters and Amtrak passengers caused by a bridge malfunction are putting pressure on the Trump Administration to fund the $20 billion Gateway project, which would reconstruct bridges and tunnels connecting New York’s Penn Station with north New Jersey. Although New York and New Jersey politicians claim that this project is vital to the region, none of them are willing to ask their constituents to put up a single cent towards its completion.

Instead, they want the federal government to pay half the cost up front, and to put up the other half in a federally guaranteed, low-interest loan. Considering that neither New Jersey Transit nor Amtrak have the revenues needed to repay that loan, there’s a good chance the federal government would end up paying for it all.

Though this seems ridiculous, transit advocates have tried to make it appear that Trump is the bad guy here. In fact, the bad guys are the local politicos who want someone else to pay for their pork-barrel projects. Continue reading