Optimistic Road & Transit Forecasts

“Billions Spent on Roads and Transit Projects Are Often Based on Optimistic Forecasts,” headlines the Wall Street Journal last week. “Researchers have found that transportation planners frequently expect more people to use their road and transit projects than ultimately do so,” said the article. “Yet those optimistic forecasts become part of the justification for spending millions or billions of dollars on such projects,” which, the article goes on to say, is “wasting resources.”

Toll road under construction in Texas. Photo by Larry D. Moore.

Recent FTA studies found that transit projects overestimate ridership by an average of 21 percent, which the article claims “was an improvement over previous years.” As I pointed out a few weeks ago, the “improvement” came about because the FTA changed its frame of reference. While older studies looked at ridership projections made when local transit agencies decided to build the project, the newer studies looked at the projections made when the FTA itself began to subsidize the project. These two steps may be separated by several years. Continue reading

July Driving 98.2% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

After June driving slightly exceeded driving levels in 2019, Americans drove 98.2 percent as many miles in July 2021 as the same month in 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. The difference is probably because July had fewer business days in 2021 than 2019.

Airline numbers from the Transportation Security Administration; Amtrak numbers from July, 2021and July, 2020 monthly performance reports; transit numbers from the National Transit Database; highway numbers from the Federal Highway Administration.

Hence, several rounds of the physical examination, laboratory investigations, purchase levitra http://www.heritageihc.com/visit and personal interaction may be required to conclude. Depression is viagra uk http://www.heritageihc.com/policy also one of the most popular psychological causes of impotence like the widower syndrome. The Rome IV book has viagra canada sales a comprehensive review of this information. Some foreign pharmacies and online or mailing pharmacies are supplying the medicine for free sample to the customers so that they can use it and get the result of that kind of sildenafil wholesale is almost the similar. The data indicate that rural driving increased by 2.3 percent while urban driving fell 3.6 percent short of 2019 levels. Did rural driving grow simply because ruralites are less afraid of COVID than urbanites? Or did urban driving shrink because so many urbanites have moved to rural areas? Continue reading

Automobiles: Low Cost and Socially Just

An anti-auto, pro-cycling group called the Institute for Transportation Development Policy (ITDP) claims that Americans spend too much on transportation, and if only they lived more like Europeans they would save a lot of money. However, there are some fundamental flaws in their analysis.

According to the article, Americans spend 13 percent of their household expenditures on transportation while Europeans spend only 11 percent. The first problem with their claim is the source of their data: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). BLS compiles data based on surveys. While BLS data might be useful comparing cities and states within the United States, the surveys are not completely reliable.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), however, collects all the data about where money goes in the national economy. According to the BEA, only 9.2 percent of “personal consumption expenditures” went for transportation in 2019. This includes motor vehicles, transit, airlines, and other forms of mass transportation. These data are more comparable to the European data cited by ITDP. Continue reading

National Per-Mile User Fee in Infrastructure Bill

Section 13002 of the infrastructure bill that the senate passed last week calls for the secretaries of transportation and the treasury to create a pilot mileage-based user fee program. The last transportation bill, which was passed in 2015, offered states grants to create their own pilot programs, but only six states did so, and some of them are not currently active.

The proposed infrastructure bill extends the state program (in section 13001), but also creates a national pilot program. If passed, the Secretary of Transportation would first create an advisory board that would take up to a year to design the program. Then the Secretary of the Treasury would set fees, which could differ by size of motor vehicle. Then the two secretaries would do a “public awareness campaign” to try to find geographically and economically distributed volunteers to participate in the program.

Fees could be charged via smart-phone apps, third-party GPS devices plugged into the diagnostic ports of cars (which is one way Oregon does it), data collected by automakers (such as GM’s OneStar system, which keeps track of vehicle locations in case of an accident), data collected by insurance companies (which can charge people by the mile using a similar GPS device in at least eight states), or “any other method that the Secretary considers appropriate.” Continue reading

June Driving Exceeds Pre-Pandemic Levels

Americans drove more miles in June 2021 than June 2019, the first time since the pandemic began that driving exceeded pre-pandemic levels, according to data published yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. We drove 282.5 billion vehicle miles in June 2021, almost half a percent more than the 281.2 billion driven in June 2019.

When compared with pre-pandemic levels, driving has effectively recovered from the pandemic, while other forms of travel have not.

To be fair, June 2021 had more business days than June 2019, which helped boost miles of driving. July 2021 had fewer business days that July 2019, so we’ll see next month how much of a difference this makes. Continue reading

Poison Pills in the Senate Infrastructure Bill

The House-approved INVEST Act included a provision requiring states to insure that all existing roads were in a state-of-good-repair before building new roads. I called that a “poison pill” because it poisoned the idea of using federal funds to promote mobility. This is especially true because Amtrak and transit have far more severe maintenance backlogs than highways, yet the bill included no similar provisions for those modes.

Click image to download a 4.0-MB PDF of this bill.

I’ve read through the 2,702-page Senate infrastructure bill and the good news is that it doesn’t include the same fix-it-first provision for highways as the House bill. However, it does have several mobility poisons of its own. Continue reading

Dems Admit Highway Hostility

Democrats looking to the 2022 election must worry that some of their number are working so hard to alienate the vast majority of American voters. As noted in Politico, members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, led by the Antiplanner’s own congressman, Peter DeFazio, are openly hostile to American’s favorite form of travel.

“You can’t pave over the whole country,” says DeFazio, whose INVEST Act, which recently passed the House, contains provisions that would severely restrict the ability of state to spend federal highway dollars on new highways. Yet highways occupy a vanishingly small share of the nation’s land area, and the idea that there is any danger to them paving over the whole country is just fear mongering.

Americans use highways for 87 percent of their personal travel while Amtrak and transit, which DeFazio and friends favor, provide just 1 percent of passenger-miles. There are good reasons for this: motor vehicles and highways are cheap, convenient, and fast relative to the Democrats’ alternatives. So it’s not surprising that 92 percent of American households own at least one car, 96 percent of American workers live in a household with at least one car, and at least a third of the 4 percent of American workers who live in households without cars nonetheless get to work by automobile. Continue reading

May Driving Reaches 96% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

Americans drove 95.6 percent as many miles in May 2021 as they did in May 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. This is up from 91.9 percent in April but down from 97.2 percent in March. May’s record is pretty good considering that May had two fewer business days in 2021 than in 2019 while March had two more.

At 99.4 percent of pre-pandemic levels, rural driving is ahead of urban driving, which was just 93.9 percent in May. Drivers in 21 states drove more in rural areas in 2021 than in 2019; urban driving in May 2021 exceeded 2019 in just six states. Continue reading

Do New Roads Boost the Economy?

“More highway spending won’t rev up the economy,” argues a recent article in the Wall Street Journal. However, the article’s writer, David Harrison, seems a little confused about how highway spending might help the economy.

“The U.S. already has an extensive system of roads, so building more wouldn’t add much to productivity, economists say,” writes Harrison. But this depends entirely on where roads are built. Continue reading

Transit’s Post-COVID Recovery Is Slowest

Amtrak’s May ridership surged to 45.2 percent of pre-COVID levels (as compared with May 2019), surpassing public transit, which reached only 42.3 percent of 2019 levels. Transit’s recovery was partly hurt by the fact that May 2021 had two fewer business days than May 2019, but the slow growth makes transit the least-recovered of the various modes of travel.

Shown are transit trips from the National Transit Database, and airline trips from Transportation Safety Administration, and Amtrak passenger miles from the May performance report. Driving is in vehicle miles from the Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Volume Trends; May highway data won’t be out for another week or so.

As usual, rail transit is doing worse than bus transit when compared with 2019, but rail has also recovered more since 2020. Most of rail’s recovery is in heavy rail and commuter rail; light rail’s recovery is only slightly faster than transit buses and hybrid rail (meaning Diesel-powered light rail) isn’t even recovering as fast as buses. Continue reading