2022 Transit 62.0% of 2019

Urban transit carried just over half a billion trips in the United States in December, and just under 6 billion in 2022 as a whole, according to December 2022 transit data released Monday by the Federal Transit Administration. December’s ridership was 66.0 percent of December 2019 while the calendar year’s was 62.0 percent.

Transit trips are from the National Transit Database; Amtrak passenger-miles are from Monthly Performance Reports; airline passenger data are from the Transportation Security Administration; and highway vehicle-mile data are from the Traffic Volume Trends. December highway data will be available in a week or so.

Meanwhile, after reaching above 90 percent of 2019 numbers in November for the first time since the pandemic, Amtrak numbers fell to 80 percent in December, its lowest, measured as a percentage of 2019, since May. Airline passenger numbers fell a little bit as well, but only from 94.3 to 93.3 percent of 2019. December highway numbers should be available soon. Continue reading

November Driving 1.5% More Than in 11/2019

Americans drove 1.5 percent more miles in November 2022 than November 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. This is the third month in a row that driving exceeded 100 percent of pre-pandemic levels. For the year to date, Americans drove 99.99 percent as many miles as in 2019, so if December is even just 0.2 percent above 100 percent, the year as a whole will be as well.

States where driving was well ahead of 2019 include South Dakota (20%), Florida, Missouri, and Rhode Island (all 14%), and Hawaii (12%). Hawaii is surprising as much driving there is by tourists, and the tourist industry has been decimated by the pandemic. Apparently, it is recovering. States where driving remains short of 2019 include West Virginia (-22%), California (-13%), Minnesota (-9%), and New Jersey (-8%), as well as the District of Columbia (-14%). Continue reading

Amtrak November PM 91% of November 2019

Amtrak carried 90.8 percent as many passenger-miles in November 2022 as it did in November 2019, according to the monthly performance report released by the company last week. This is the first time since the pandemic that it has exceeded 90 percent of pre-pandemic numbers.

Amtrak remains behind air travel, which first breached 90 percent in April 2021. Yet it appears that Amtrak, unlike transit, will eventually come pretty close to 100 percent of pre-pandemic numbers. Continue reading

Bandon Is Urban After All

Last week, I complained that, under the Census Bureau’s new definition of “urban,” Bandon, Oregon is rural. It turns out that it squeaked into the list of urban areas by virtue of having 2,012 housing units. (My count of housing units was based on the Census Bureau’s 2018 estimates.)

This large shopping center in California City, California isn’t enough for the Census Bureau to classify it as “urban.”

However, 1,143 areas that had been classified as urban in 2010 were counted as rural in 2020. To be urban, an area had to have either 5,000 people or 2,000 housing units and an urban core that had at least 1,275 housing units per square mile. Continue reading

Transit Carries 67.5% of 2019 Riders in November

Transit ridership in November 2022 was 32.5 percent below November 2019, according to data released late last week by the Federal Transit Administration. This is in spite of the fact that November 2022 had one more work day than November 2019.

Amtrak and highway data are not yet available but this chart will be updated when they come out.

U.S. airlines saw 94.3 percent as many travelers in November as in the same month in 2019, down slightly from 94.5 percent in October. Amtrak data should be available soon; highway data seem to take a little longer. Continue reading

NY and CA Populations Shrinking Fast

California and New York each lost more than half a million residents between 2020 and 2022, according to population estimates issued last week by the Census Bureau. New York’s population declined by 2.1 percent and California’s by 1.2 percent.

Other big losers were Illinois, which lost 1.6 percent, and Louisiana, which lost 1.3 percent. Populations also declined in Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Oregon, all of which have expensive housing markets. But populations declined in West Virginia, Mississippi, Michigan, Ohio, and New Mexico, which generally have affordable housing markets. Continue reading

Transit Carried 63.7% of 2019 Riders in October

Transit carried 63.7 percent as many riders in October 2022 as October 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. Reflecting falling fuel prices, this was a drop from 66.8 percent in September.

Meanwhile, air travel, as measured by the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints, grew to 94.5 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Data for Amtrak and highway driving are not yet available. Continue reading

Transit Carries 66.6% of 2019 Riders in September

September 2022 was a booming month for the American transit industry, which carried 66.6 percent as many riders as in September 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is the highest ridership recorded, as percentage of pre-pandemic levels, since the pandemic began.

Amtrak finally posted its August performance report along with the September report yesterday as well, revealing that its ridership climbed to almost 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels in August before falling to just over 80 percent in September. Air travel reached 94 percent and, as usual, driving data won’t be posted for a week or so. Continue reading

2021 Transit Data

Transit agencies carried 45 percent as many riders in 2021 as in 2019. To do so, they operated vehicles 81 percent as many miles as in 2019. However, they managed to spend 98.5 percent as much money on operating costs, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration.

Nearly empty transit buses and trains don’t save energy or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Photo by Jim Fischer.

The annual National Transit Database reports are based on the fiscal years of the transit agencies, which can end anywhere from March 31 to December 31. This means the 2021 data are the first full year since the pandemic began. By mid-2022, transit ridership had recovered to about 60 percent of pre-pandemic numbers, but it is likely that transit agencies are still spending as if they were getting 100 percent of riders. Continue reading

August Transit 63.4% of 2019 Numbers

Transit in August 2022 carried 63.4 percent as many riders as in August 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is the second-highest since the pandemic began (the highest being in June) and only the third time in the last two years that transit has carried more than 60 percent of pre-pandemic numbers. One reason for the increase may be that August 2022 had one more business day than August 2019.

Amtrak and the Federal Highway Administration have not yet published August data, but airlines carried more than 91 percent as many passengers in August 2022 and August 2019, according to Transportation Security Administration counts. I’ll post the Amtrak and highway data when they are made available.

When compared with July 2022, the biggest gains among major urban areas have been in Phoenix (24%), Denver (22%), Cincinnati (21%), and Riverside-San Bernardino (16%). Urban areas that are still lagging include Chicago (55% of 2019 numbers), Washington (56%), Atlanta (53%), Detroit (24%), and Minneapolis-St. Paul (49%). DC and the Twin Cities are doing poorly because their downtown are among the slowest to recover and I presume the same is true for the others. In addition, the Twin Cities light-rail system has the most transit crime, per passenger-mile carried, of any in the nation, which is discouraging both ridership and downtown recovery. Continue reading