The Antiplanner » Policy brief

Category Archives: Policy brief

Why U.S. Infrastructure Is So Expensive

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
4 Comments

Now that Congress has passed an infrastructure bill, major media outlets are beginning to ask questions about how the money will be spent. Using the Honolulu rail project as an example, the New York Times wants to know why so many infrastructure projects suffer from such large cost overruns. Bloomberg asks similar questions using Boston’s Green Line extension as an example.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

The Eno Transportation Foundation and Manhattan Institute wonder why projects cost more than in other countries even before the cost overruns. These are all good questions that should have been asked before the bill was passed. Continue reading →

Sutton Mountain Wilderness Yes, Monument No

By | | Policy brief, Public lands
5 Comments

In November, Oregon senators Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden introduced legislation to turn Sutton Mountain into a national monument. If you’ve never heard of Sutton Mountain, don’t feel bad: I’ve lived in Oregon all my life and never heard of it until a few months ago. Briefly, Sutton Mountain is a undistinguished summit in eastern Oregon’s Wheeler County that is surrounded by land that is mostly managed by the Bureau of Land Management, which has studied it for potential wilderness status.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Sutton Mountain has some natural values that are deserving of wilderness status. But the Merkley-Wyden bill doesn’t protect natural resources: instead, it is an economic development bill. It proposes to create a national monument in the hope that it would attract tourism to the county that has the smallest population in Oregon. As a national monument, activities would be allowed that would be forbidden in a wilderness area, such as the destruction of juniper trees that some ranchers think reduce forage for their cattle. The bill would also transfer roughly more than 1,300 acres of federal land to a town of fewer than 130 people with the expectation that the town would use the land for economic development. Continue reading →

Midwest Rail Plan: A Disaster in the Making

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
5 Comments

In 2009 and 2010, the Federal Railroad Administration gave the state of Illinois $1.39 billion to improve tracks between Chicago and St. Louis to allow passenger trains to go up to 110 miles per hour, saving one hour of travel time. The agency also gave the state $370 million to buy 88 passenger cars and 21 locomotives to operate more frequent trains in this and other Midwest corridors such as Chicago-Detroit.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Pretty much all of that money, along with about $500 million in state funds, has been spent. Yet, more than a decade later, Chicago-St. Louis passenger rains are no faster and no more frequent than they were in 2009. The same happened in other Midwest corridors, including Chicago-Detroit, Chicago-Twin Cities, Chicago-Omaha, and St. Louis-Kansas City, where collectively $1.6 billion was spent yet speeds and frequencies remain the same. So far, of the equipment ordered to serve these corridors, only four passenger cars and one locomotive have been delivered. Continue reading →

Mobility Principles for a Prosperous World

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
3 Comments

Four years ago, Zipcar co-founder Robin Chase wrote, or led the effort to write, ten principles of shared mobility for livable cities. Despite a patina of social justice and green values, these principles were a transparent effort to give her company and companies like hers a huge economic advantage by limiting and eventually forbidding the use of privately owned vehicles in cities.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

Recently, someone asked me for my response to these principles. While my reply is on page 5 of the PDF, my main response is to offer my own mobility principles. These principles apply to urban and rural areas, to the United States and other countries, and to all forms of transportation. I’ve previously stated most of these principles in various Antiplanner posts, but this one brings them together. Continue reading →

Transit 2020: The First Year of the Pandemic

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
6 Comments

Transit agencies in 2020 carried 40 percent fewer riders than in 2019, according to data released last Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. To do so, they provided 86 percent as much service (measured in vehicle miles or hours) at 97 percent of the cost.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

According to the database, transit carried 5.9 billion trips in 2020. We know from the FTA’s monthly reports that transit carried 4.5 billion trips in calendar year 2020. The difference is that data in the annual database are based on transit agency fiscal years, not the calendar year. Continue reading →

A Data-Driven Approach to Transportation Safety

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
4 Comments

About 20,160 people died in traffic accidents in the first half of 2021, according to an early estimate released last week by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). This puts this year on track to being the first since 2007 to have more than 40,000 annual fatalities.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Historically, fatality rates peaked at more than 450 per billon vehicle miles in 1909, and then declined fairly steadily to 10.1 in 2014. The 2021 rate of 13.4 represents a 33 percent increase over 2014 levels. This increase is partly due to changes in driving behavior during the pandemic, but rates had increased even before the pandemic, reaching 11.4 fatalities per billion miles in 2016. Although the evidence isn’t clear, many experts believe much of the increase, both before and during the pandemic, was due to people being distracted by smart phones. Continue reading →

The Affordable-Housing Industrial Complex

By | | Housing, Policy brief
5 Comments

Since 1932, Congress has passed dozens of laws aimed at making rental housing and homeownership more affordable. Many of these laws created new programs while few of the older programs were abolished. As a result, more than two dozen programs remain active today, including programs targeted for specific groups such as seniors, people with disabilities, Native Americans, veterans, and people with HIV.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

These programs fall into two broad categories: programs aimed at assisting low-income people to pay for rental housing and programs aimed at assisting middle-income people to become homeowners. Little effort has been made to assess whether the various programs are cost-effective in what they do. As a result, relative to what they produce, some are far more costly than others. Continue reading →

The Truth About Western Wildfire

By | | Policy brief, Wildfire
2 Comments

According to the National Interagency Coordination Center’s latest situation report, nearly 40 major fires are still burning across the United States, but the report notes that more than half “are being managed with a strategy other than full suppression.” Generally, such fires are on federal or state land and the agencies are allowing the fires to burn while taking care that they don’t damage structures or trespass onto private property. In most parts of the country, the 2021 fire season is over.

Click image to download a six-page PDF of this policy brief.

Despite shrill reports, 2021 was an ordinary fire year, burning about 94 percent as many acres as the previous 10-year average. Based on situation report archives, fires have burned well over the average number of acres in northern California, the northern Rockies, and the East, well under the average in Alaska, the central Rockies, the Great Basin, and the South, and about the average in the Pacific Northwest, Southern California, and the Southwest. Continue reading →

The Morality of Protecting Endangered Species

By | | Fish & wildlife, Policy brief
3 Comments

Since the Endangered Species Act was passed in 1973, around 1,750 plants and animals in the United States have been listed as endangered (meaning in immediate danger of extinction) or threatened (meaning likely to become endangered soon). Of those, 48, or less than 3 percent, have been taken off the lists because they have recovered. That’s not an inspiring success story, particularly since some of those species recovered due to actions that have nothing to do with the Endangered Species Act.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

In addition to the 48 recovered species, another 10 listed species have been declared extinct. Two weeks ago, the Fish & Wildlife Service announced that it wants to declare another 23 species, including the ivory-billed woodpecker, to be extinct. Continue reading →

Addressing Droughts with Water Markets

By | | Policy brief
3 Comments

“The West is running out of water,” says the Economist. “Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States, is at its lowest level since it was first filled in the 1930s.” This is “potentially the worst drought in 1,200 years” warns the Guardian. Moreover, frets the Washington Post, this isn’t just this year: “it’s our new, permanently arid normal.”

Click image to download a three-page PDF of this policy brief.

Many of these alarms were prompted by a major heat wave that hit the West in June, 2021. Since then, the West has cooled but remained dry: as of last week, about 22 percent of the West was in “exceptional drought” compared with just 2.5 percent a year ago. At the same time, the effects of the drought haven’t been as severe as might have been predicted. As of yesterday, for example, 5.9 million acres of land have been burned by wildfire, compared with an average of 6.9 million acres through this date over the previous 10 years. Continue reading →