2. The Day That Changed the World

If asked, many baby boomers would probably say that the most important day in history during their lifetimes was November 22, 1963, the day President Kennedy was assassinated. That event transformed America in many ways, bringing the happy-go-lucky 50s to a dark close, perhaps paving the way for the Viet Nam War, but also bringing in a president who, unlike Kennedy, was able to persuade Congress to pass several vital civil rights laws.

For me, however, the most important day was another 22: April 22, 1970, the first Earth Day or, as it was called then, the National Environmental Teach-In. This day transformed America from one that was divided on environmental issues to one in which everyone, from teachers and politicians to oil and timber companies, were expected to pledge allegiance to environmental protection first before taking any other position on the issues. The results include recycling, locavores, and a consensus of thousands of scientists who aren’t climatologists on global climate change even though scientists had previously been conditioned to not express strong opinions on issues outside their areas of expertise.

As well as affecting our country in general, the teach-in had a huge effect on my life. I wanted to be an architect, and I spent the long drives my family took to Arizona each Christmas reading books on modern architects: Mies van der Rohe, Philip Johnson, Le Corbusier, and most importantly Frank Lloyd Wright, whose Taliesin West I visited on one of our Arizona trips. Continue reading

First Quarter Transit Ridership Down 2.6%

Nationwide transit ridership in March 2019 was 1.6 percent below March 2018, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. For what it’s worth, March 2019 had one fewer work day than March 2018. However, ridership for the first three months of 2019 was down 2.6 percent, so this year is not looking good for the transit industry.

March ridership grew in just eleven of the nation’s fifty largest urban areas, and first quarter ridership grew in fifteen. The biggest losers for the quarter were Milwaukee (-12.7%), Detroit (-11.9%), and Louisville (-11.0%). The biggest winners were Richmond (+16.5%), Dallas-Ft. Worth (+8.1%), and Tampa (+5.7%). Houston grew but by only 1.4 percent. Ridership in Seattle declined by 2.2 percent for the month of March and 2.4 percent for the first quarter.
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The Antiplanner will have a more detailed analysis of these data in next Tuesday’s policy brief. In the meantime, my enhanced version of the FTA’s spreadsheet can be downloaded by anyone wanting to look up their favorite transit agencies or urban areas. For information on how to use the spreadsheet, see the explanation with last month’s post, keeping in mind that the columns with the annual totals have been moved one to the right to make room for March, 2019 data.

Milwaukee Puts Ribbons Over Brooms

Due to circumstances entirely within the city of Milwaukee’s control, it can’t afford to fix potholes in city streets and it certainly won’t pay to repair the damage to at least 45 cars caused by those potholes so far this year. The circumstances are that, instead of fixing streets, the city decided to blow $123 million on a 2.1-mile streetcar line.

The Milwaukee streetcar trundles through the city at an average speed of 7.4 miles per hour. Flickr photo by David Wilson.

Nor will it have money for fixing potholes in the future. That’s because the Democratic National Convention is going to be held in Milwaukee next summer, and the city plans to blow another $28 million building a 0.4-mile extension of the streetcar line beyond the convention center — a convention center, by the way, whose expansion is costing the city $247 million to $277 million. Continue reading

1. A Tale of Two Train Disasters

In 2004, Denver-area voters approved a sale tax increase to pay for “FasTracks,” a plan to build 119 miles of rail transit lines in the metropolitan area. In 2008, California voters approved the sale of bonds to pay for the construction of a 520-mile high-speed rail line between Los Angeles/Anaheim and San Francisco/San Jose. FasTracks is within a metropolitan area and high-speed rail is supposed to connect several metropolitan areas, yet there are a lot of similarities between these two projects.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Both rely on technologies that were rendered obsolete years before they received voter approval. The agencies sponsoring both projects ignored early warning signals that the projects were not cost effective. Both had large cost overruns. Advocates of both lied to voters about the benefits and costs of the projects. Due to poor planning, both projects remain incomplete. Despite the failure of the projects to date, both have adherents who hope to complete them. Continue reading

1. Memories

I first became an antiplanner in the 1980s, when the Forest Service, in response to a 1976 law, was writing long-range, comprehensive plans for every national forest in the country. As a forestry consultant who worked almost exclusively for environmental groups, I was hired to review many of those plans.

The Forest Service had an administrative process for appealing its decisions, and environmentalists appealed every single one of the more than 100 forest plans written by the agency. (There were 155 national forests, but some smaller ones were combined into one plan.) Environmentalists who hired me to review the plans won about half of their appeals or legal challenges. Groups that didn’t hire me lost every single appeal they brought.

One national forest halted all timber sales for more than a decade after my review. Others went back to the drawing boards and started over from scratch. “You always get nervous when you hear that Randal O’Toole is coming to your forest,” a forest planner admitted. Continue reading

Washington Transit Trips Up 90 Percent

Bucking the national trend, Washington has managed to increase transit ridership by 90 percent in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the same quarter of 2018. It accomplished this by the simple expedient of offering the rides for free. Did I mention that this is Washington, Indiana?

Still, 90 percent sounds huge — but don’t get excited. For Washington, Indiana, increasing ridership by 90 percent meant going from 37 riders per day to 70. The city of Washington had about 12,000 residents in 2017 and Washington transit carried 10,353 rides — less than one per resident. Increasing ridership by 90 percent won’t even bring it up to two.

By offering free rides, “The city may be losing 75 cents per ride [which was the previous transit fare], but people will spend even more than that at area businesses,” claimed transit consultant Chuck Martindale. “It is something that is beneficial to the entire community.” Martindale offered no evidence that people getting free rides were spending more at area businesses before they got free rides, and he neglected to mention that, before offering free rides, Washington was losing nearly $10 per ride anyway. Continue reading

A Trillion Here, a Trillion There . . .

Even as California governor Gavin Newsome blames the state’s high-speed rail debacle on the consultants, President Trump and congressional Democrats have tenatively agreed to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure. Some have drawn the wrong lesson from California’s problems, suggesting that government should do everything itself, that privatization is wasteful, and government control is efficient.

In fact, it’s not the consultants, stupid! Nor is it the private sector in general, which has incentives to be efficient so long as it has to rely on market forces rather than a big-government sugar daddy. As the Cato Institute’s David Boaz points out, the real problem is the iron triangle of bureaucrats, elected officials, and private interests (including consultants, contractors, and unions) who benefit from big-government programs. All of them work together to get the programs approved and then have plausible deniability when things inevitably go wrong.

No one should have been surprised that the California project cost far more than originally projected. Wendell Cox and Joseph Vranich predicted it months before voters went to the polls in 2008 (and even their high estimate of $61 billion — $71 billion in today’s dollars — turned out to be low). As the Antiplanner has shown, almost every passenger rail project built by government in the last half century has had a large cost overrun. Continue reading