9. Timber for Oregon’s Tomorrow, Part 2

“Just because some senators were stupid doesn’t mean you have to be!” the forestry consultant yelled at the Forest Service official. “I hope when you consider multiple use you wait ’til the trees were gone first!”

For the Forest Service, “multiple use” — the idea that national forests were managed for many things and not just commodities — was almost as sacred as “sustained yield.” It was stunning to see this consultant, one of the biggest names in Northwest forestry, lose his cool in a public forum.

The story began in 1976 when OSPIRG asked me to work on the Oregon State Board of Forestry. The Oregon Department of Forestry had been created in 1911 to coordinate firefighting efforts and manage state-owned forest lands. Continue reading

9. Ranking the Best & Worst Transit Agencies

The nation’s worst-managed transit systems lose 65 cents for every dollar they spend on operating costs, fill only 42 percent of their seats, carry the average urban resident just 40 round trips per year, use more energy and spew out more greenhouse gases per passenger mile than the average car, carry fewer than 14 percent of low-income workers to work, and lost 4 percent of their customers in the last four years.

Click image to download a PDF of this policy brief.

Oops — excuse me. Those are the numbers for the nation’s five best transit systems outside of New York (which is in a class by itself). The five worst systems, out of the nation’s fifty largest urban areas, lose 87 cents for every dollar they spend on operating costs, fill under 18 percent of their seats, carry the average urban resident less than four round trips per year, use more energy and spew out more greenhouse gases per passenger mile than the average Chevy Suburban, carry less than 2 percent of low-income workers to work, and lost more than 13 percent of their customers in the last four years. Continue reading

8. Cascade Holistic Economic Consultants

In contrast with the BLM, the Forest Service was amazingly open and willing to work with the public. The BLM was sort of a made-up agency — a merger of something called the Grazing Service and the General Land Office. In contrast, the Forest Service had been founded by one charismatic man whose shadow continued to influence the agency for many decades after he left it.

Gifford Pinchot was raised in a wealthy family in Pennsylvania. Some of the family money came from logging forests in the Midwest, and perhaps out of a sense of guilt, Pinchot’s father encouraged him to study forestry. At the time, there were only a handful of professional foresters in the United States, so Pinchot went to France to study, then returned full of hopes and ambitions to prove that forest management — as opposed to simply cutting it and selling the land — could be made profitable.

In 1891, Congress authorized the president to set aside some of the vast federal lands in the West as forest reserves. These lands were managed by the Department of the Interior. Pinchot had gotten a job running the Department of Agriculture’s Bureau of Forestry, which was essentially an extension service encouraging farmers and other private land owners to manage forests rather than just convert them to other uses. Continue reading

Grand Jury Urges Changes in VTA

The Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) is “one of the most expensive and least efficient transit systems in the country,” says a report issued yesterday by the Santa Clara County (San Jose) Grand Jury. “Empty or near-empty buses and light rail trains clog the County’s streets,” the agency “veers from one financial crisis to another,” and it is intent on building more light rail even though ridership is declining and “experts have pronounced the early twentieth century concept of light rail transit obsolete.”

Back in 2007, the Antiplanner declared that VTA was the “worst transit agency of the decade.” Since then, says the Grand Jury, “VTA’s operating performance has continued to deteriorate.” This isn’t helped by the fact that VTA is pouring billions of dollars into a BART line to San Jose that one of the agency’s own board members says “is going to bankrupt VTA.” Nor is it helped by the fact that the last proposed light-rail extension is expected to cost $183 million a mile and is predicted by VTA to carry so few riders that each new riders will cost $720,000.

The Grand Jury says that part of the problem is that its board is made up of members of the Santa Clara County board, and city commissioners from San Jose and other cities in the county. These elected officials don’t have time to oversee VTA along with everything else they do, leading VTA to become a “staff-driven organization.” Continue reading

Reports from the War on Homeownership

The latest home price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency indicates that the most recent housing bubble has peaked and prices are now declining in expensive housing markets such as those in California, Hawaii, and Washington. This is an indication that the nation may be headed into a recession.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

In contrast, prices continue to slowly increase in more affordable housing markets such as those in Indiana, North Carolina, and Texas. This difference is a result of the amount of rural land-use regulation in these states. Continue reading

7. The BLM in Southwest Oregon

Art Downing and Paula Ajay were San Francisco hippies who, with some friends, decided to form a commune and move back to the land. They bought some cutover timber land in southern Oregon, only to discover that being bordered by the BLM meant that they could expect clearcutting and herbicide spraying in their proverbial backyard.

Downing and Ajay contacted OSPIRG for help and OSPIRG sent them to me. By the time I met them, they and a man named Harold Washington were the only members left of the commune, and Washington soon went back to California as well.

Downing and Ajay introduced me to the clearcutting issue. Deciding whether to use clearcutting or some other cutting method was another subject that wasn’t taught to undergraduates at the Oregon State University School of Forestry, but I knew clearcutting was controversial. I was skeptical of the controversy, which I felt was based mainly on aesthetic grounds, and I believed that whether a particular forest should be cut at all was a more important question than how it should be cut. Continue reading

The Car Is Still King in DC

In a report that will not surprise any Antiplanner reader, a Washington Post survey reveals that “the car is still king in the Washington area.” The survey of 1,507 DC-area residents found that 85 percent frequently drive for their travel needs, a number that ranges from 64 percent in DC itself to 92 percent in Virginia suburbs. The article notes that these numbers are confirmed by the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, adding that the survey’s results haven’t changed much in the past decade.

Unfortunately, the writers have been infected with anti-auto planner rhetoric, referring to people’s preferences for auto driving as “car dependency.” Are the writers themselves computer-dependent because they no longer use manual typewriters (or ink and quill)? Are they Starbucks-dependent if they no longer brew their own coffee each morning? What’s so bad about being “dependent” on something that is faster, cheaper, and more convenient than the alternatives?

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7. April Transit Ridership Grows 2%

Nationwide transit ridership in April 2019 was 2.0 percent greater than in April 2018. According to the latest ridership update from the Federal Transit Administration, this gain can be almost entirely attributed to a 6.6 percent increase in New York subway ridership, a result of ridership recovering from maintenance and repair work done in April, 2018. (See the end of this post for information on the Antiplanner’s enhanced version of the FTA data file.)

Click image to download a three-page PDF of this policy brief.

The New York urban area is the 430-pound gorilla of the transit industry, while all other transit agencies are 4 ounce to 60-pound monkeys. This means what happens in New York can swamp nationwide industry numbers and cover up things happening elsewhere. Continue reading

6. Timber for Oregon’s Tomorrow

While studying the BLM, I learned some valuable lessons about Oregon forests. Private timber companies that owned a large portion of Oregon’s forests practiced sustained yield but not non-declining even flow. Many of them were running out of old-growth timber and were counting on national forests and BLM lands to keep their mills running while waiting for their second-growth forests to grow back. But mills that didn’t own their own lands were already buying most of the federal timber on the market, and they feared being pushed out of business when the big timber land owners started competing against them.

The Forest Service and BLM had dramatically increased their allowable cut levels between 1950 and 1973. At first, this was possible simply because they had so much timber available, but in the last few years before 1973 they were increasingly relying on tricks like the allowable cut effect and genetic improvement. The agencies were clearly at their limit and couldn’t increase their allowable cut levels further without violating the non-declining even flow rule.

The timber industry had what it thought was an elegant solution to this problem: when the Forest Service and BLM calculated their allowable cuts, they should take nearby private lands into consideration. If those lands were growing second-growth timber, under the allowable cut effect the federal land managers could increase their allowable cuts. This would appear to satisfy the political need to protect local community stability. Continue reading

6. 1,080 Transit Charts in One Spreadsheet

Policy briefs four and five included several charts showing transit’s decline in Austin. To help visualize what is happening to transit in other urban areas, I’ve made a spreadsheet that creates eleven different charts for any of nearly 100 urban areas. Among other things, these charts show ridership, trips per capita, costs, environmental impacts, transit’s share of commuting, and changes in the incomes of transit commuters.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

The dataset includes the nation’s 100 largest urban areas. Because of the transit controversy in Durham, which as of 2010 was only the 110th largest urban area, I included it on the list as well. Continue reading