Solving the Amtrak Conundrum

Amtrak is a conundrum that has been difficult for both politicians and Amtrak managers to solve.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

  • Politicians and the media act as if it is an important mode of travel, yet it carries less than 1 percent as many passenger miles as domestic airlines and just 0.1 percent of total domestic passenger miles.
  • Rail advocates claim intercity passenger trains are economically competitive, yet Amtrak fares per passenger mile average nearly three times airline fares, and when subsidies are added Amtrak costs four times as much per passenger mile as the airlines and well over twice as much as driving.
  • Amtrak claims that some of its trains earn a profit and overall passenger revenues cover 95 percent of its costs, yet even the Rail Passengers Association, the leading supporter of intercity passenger trains, believes Amtrak’s accounting methods misrepresent reality.

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Yahoo Headline Writers Should Learn to Read

A new study finds that some “metro areas have used an urban sprawl to continue to provide ample housing stock for residents” whereas areas that have emphasized dense developments have seen rents reach an all-time high.

Yahoo! News headlined its report on this study, “How affordable housing in big cities is hurt by urban sprawl.” Yet neither the article nor the study explains how urban sprawl in affordable metro areas makes housing in dense metro areas less affordable.

“It seems that the metros most effectively meeting the demand for new housing are still primarily doing so by continuing to sprawl,” says the study, “despite an increasing demand for dense, walkable neighborhoods that prioritize sustainability.” This was supposed to have been written by an economist, but wouldn’t an economist question whether demand for dense neighborhoods is really increasing if builders, whose livelihoods depend on keep up with demand, aren’t building them in less-regulated areas? Continue reading

14. Three Tools

In the late 1970s, I wrote comments on enough draft plans for people in the Pacific Northwest Region of the Forest Service to know who I was, but not enough to have a major impact on the plans. But I found or developed three tools that helped.

The first was described in a book titled The Economics of Natural Environments by John Krutilla, of Resources for the Future, and Anthony Fisher, an economist from the University of California at Berkeley. The book argued that, since development of a roadless area was irreversible, a special calculation was necessary to weigh the benefits and costs of such development. Their proposal was to assume that the recreation and other amenity values of undeveloped areas would increase forever because such areas would become increasingly scarce. Even if today’s amenity values didn’t outweigh today’s commodity values from development, they argued, the discounted sum of future amenity values might do so.

I applied Krutilla and Fisher’s method to Oregon roadless areas in a paper called An Economic View of RARE II. The paper showed that, while some areas had tremendous timber values that outweighed potential wilderness values, most were more valuable for amenities than commodities. Continue reading

Can’t Take the Heat? Attack Your Opponents

What do you do if you are an associate professor of law looking to bolster your resume by writing papers that make bold assertions and someone challenges you on those assertions? If you are Greg Shill, you call them names.

Shill, as noted here before, has written articles claiming that Americans didn’t choose to drive; they were “forced” to do so by the law. The Antiplanner responded to that, and Shill’s reply was to call me a “climate denier.” When asked to respond to my article point by point, Shill said, “There’s no point arguing with climate deniers (or anti-vaxxers, for that matter).”

I thought the question was whether the law forced people to drive, not climate. For what it’s worth, far from being a “climate denier,” whatever that is, I am not a climatologist and so I’ve never expressed a strong opinion on the issue of climate change. Apparently, Shill has no qualms about expressing opinions on subjects outside his area of expertise (which is business law). Continue reading

Front Range Commuter Rail: A Terrible Idea

The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) has issued a request for proposals to plan a commuter-rail line from Ft. Collins to Pueblo, a population corridor just east of the mountains known as the Front Range. CDOT estimates building this line would cost between $5 billion and $15 billion, depending on speed. The agency expects to build all-new tracks within the existing BNSF and UP rights of way, which it says the railroads are willing to allow.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

The Colorado legislature gave CDOT $2.5 million for passenger rail studies, and CDOT wants contractors to provide a “clear vision” for a referendum that could appear on the November 2020 ballot. Part of that vision would include an eventual extension to Cheyenne on the north and Trinidad (population under 10,000) on the south. No doubt some of the money spent on studies will find its way into campaign war chests. Continue reading

13. “You Showed Very Poor Judgment in Coming Here Today”

The West in the 1970s and 1980s was the site of increasingly strident conflicts over the national forests that became known as the Timber Wars. On one hand were the sawmills that depended on sales of federal timber, along with the loggers, truck drivers, mill workers, and others who depended on those sales for jobs. On the other hand were environmentalists seeking protection for wilderness, endangered species, fisheries, and other resources that weren’t so easily marketed.

Environmentalists appealed timber sales, went to court over endangered species, and lobbied Congress to pass wilderness legislation. Timber companies asked their employees to attend rallies and engaged in their own lobbying. Both sides rallied their supporters to comment on Forest Service and BLM land-use and timber management plans.

Eventually, the hostility got so bad that some of my friends were hung in effigy by timber industry supporters. I worked far enough in the background that I escaped that fate, but I still stuck my neck out on several occasions. Continue reading

The Feebleness of Twitter

Twitter is great. The strict limits on the length of your tweet means you can say anything you want and no one expects you to back it up because you don’t have room. Or, you can do what the Antiplanner does, and include a link to a fuller statement.

Greg Shill, whose Atlantic article I critiqued in this week’s policy brief, responded with a tweet: “Randal O’Toole, prominent Cato advisor & climate denier, has published on his site Antiplanner—motto: ‘Dedicated to the Sunset of Government Planning’—what he styles a ‘policy brief’ denouncing my Atlantic article. It’s full of falsehoods, but also irony.” He was nice enough to include a link to my brief, but he must have forgotten to include a link to any statement of what falsehoods or ironies were in my brief.

A soldier in the War on Cars named Aaron Naperstek replied to his tweet saying, “An attorney friend of mine just deposed O’Toole. He’d been hired as an expert on demography. My buddy slapped him around so badly and O’Toole’s arguments were so weak that he had to ask to withdraw his opinion instead of answering more questions.” Continue reading

12. No One Forced Americans to Drive

A recent article in the Atlantic rewrites history by claiming that the law forces Americans to drive automobiles. “Our laws essentially force driving on all of us,” asserts University of Iowa law professor Gregory Shill, “by subsidizing it, by punishing people who don’t do it, by building a physical landscape that requires it, and by insulating reckless drivers from the consequences of their actions.”

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Shill is wrong on almost every point he makes. The reality is that Americans (and people in other countries) took to the automobile like ducks to water. If anything, the laws he claims forced Americans to drive were written as a result of the fact that driving had become the dominant mode of transportation. Continue reading

12. Graduate School

As a student at the University of Oregon, my main source of income was a federal program called work-study. The federal government paid 80 percent of the wages for part-time student employees, and non-profit organizations willing to pay the other 20 percent were eligible to hire students under the program. I received a call from Dave Brown, an assistant director of the Survival Center, an on-campus environmental group, asking me to work for them writing reviews of Forest Service plans.

The Survival Center was located in the latest, 1973 addition to U of O’s student union. I had office space, a desk, an IBM Selectric typewriter to write on, and a phone that was hooked into the state telephone network, allowing me to make unlimited calls to any city that had a state college or university. Although I rented a small room in a house in nearby Springfield for, as I recall, $55 a month, the Survival Center became my real home, and initially I only left because the building was closed to students after 11 pm. Later, they allowed students with a key to stay after 11 and I sometimes would work there until 2 or 3 in the morning.

I continued my cycling advocacy in a small way. Part of the cycling route between Eugene and Springfield was on a designated bike path that emptied onto a city street in Springfield. The city of Springfield had decided that it was too dangerous to let cyclists ride in the street and required that they use the sidewalk. The sidewalk wasn’t very wide and had something like 40 driveway cuts, each one requiring bicycles to go down a dip and then up a bump. Sometimes part of the sidewalk was blocked by signposts and it often had wet leaves, litter, and other obstacles. Continue reading

Does Rail Transit Stimulate New Development?

Transit agencies often justify their multi-billion rail projects by claiming that rail transit stimulates new development. This claim has, in fact, been refuted by research funded by the Federal Transit Administration and conducted by transit advocates. Despite their support for rail transit, the researchers reluctantly concluded that “Urban rail transit investments rarely ‘create’ new growth, but more typically redistribute growth that would have taken place without the investment.”

Click image to download a PDF of this policy brief.

In other words, development along the rail line is a zero-sum game: more development there meant less development somewhere else in the urban area. Total tax revenues in the urban area aren’t increased by light rail, except to the extent that taxes are raised to pay for it. Continue reading