Density and the Fertility Trap

Yesterday, Tyler Cowan mentioned in the Marginal Revolution blog that he wished books on urban areas “would spend more time discussing whether dense urban areas are simply a fertility trap.” I’m not going to write a book about it, but it may be one more reason why planners’ mania for density is a bad idea.

There appears to be a correlation between state fertility rates and land-use regulation aimed at increasing urban densities. Click image to go to a Wikipedia article on fertility rates by state.

A fertility trap, sometimes called a low fertility trap, is a situation where a nation’s birth rate has declined below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Within a generation, this leads to a reduction in the number of young people working, which means — in a country that has a social security system, as most developed countries do — the number of older people that each young person must support increases. Continue reading

Engines of Equality

A recent article in the New York Times is off-target when it calls automobiles “turbo-boosted engines of inequality.” The article points to some genuine problems, but those problems are not the fault of automobiles. Nor is “accessible public transportation” the solution, as the article claims in its conclusion.

The most egalitarian transportation since the first warlord tying a horse to the first chariot made fast transport accessible only to the elites. Image from 1985 Yugo brochure scanned by Tony DiGirolamo.

The truth is that automobiles are the most egalitarian form of transportation since walking. Horses, intercity trains, streetcars, you name it, were always used mainly by the relatively wealthy and were inaccessible to the poor, especially in cities. It was only when Henry Ford developed the moving assembly line that mechanized transportation became available to the vast majority of people. Continue reading

September Air Travel Exceeded 2019 Passenger-Miles

In September 2022, Americans flew more domestic passenger-miles than the same month in 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. This is the first time domestic air passenger-miles have exceeded 2019 levels since the pandemic began.

Although the number of passenger-miles exceeded 2019 levels, the number of trips was only 98.7 percent of September 2019. This indicates that people are substituting other means of travel for some shorter airline trips. The effect, however, is smaller than I would have expected: the average domestic airline trip was 926 miles in September 2022 vs. 911 miles in September 2019, or 1.7 percent longer. For 2022 to date, average trip lengths were only 1.4 percent longer than in the first nine months of 2019. Continue reading

The Hill Family Trusts

This is a continuation of my posts about the Willamette Valley & Cascade Mountain Wagon Road.

Taking a page from his father’s example of the Minnesota mineral lands, Louis Hill turned his timber lands in Oregon into a trust. Louis, however, wasn’t as generous as his father. Instead of making Great Northern Railway stockholders the beneficiaries of the trust, he created the trust to provide a continuous income for his family. Actually, he made six trusts: one for each of his children, one for his wife, and one for himself. Each had a one-sixth undivided ownership of the timber lands. While the trusts were created in 1917, the lands earned no income for another two decades.


Congress’ policy of granting only every other square mile of land creates a distinctive checkerboard pattern. The dark green on this Google map is the Willamette National Forest while most of the light green squares are Hill trust forest lands. Highway 20 closely follows the route of the Santiam wagon road. Click here to see the same map in satellite view showing clearcuts on the Hill forest lands.

Shortly after Louis Hill acquired those timber lands, a forestry professor at UC Berkeley quit his job to start a forestry consulting firm in Portland. Dave Mason was a prophet of sustained yield forestry, which he described as “limiting the average annual cut to the production capacity” of a forest. This was in contrast to most timber land owners of the time, who generally bought land, cut the timber, and then let the land go for taxes. Continue reading

Amtrak Reaches 87% of 2019 Passenger-Miles

Amtrak carried almost 87 percent as many passenger-miles in October 2022 as it did in October 2019, according to the monthly performance report released by the state-owned company yesterday. This is a significant increase from the 80.5 percent recorded in September.

This is an update of a chart posted last week. I’ll provide another update when October driving data are available.

This is still short of the 94.5 percent carried by domestic and international airlines. Domestic air travel alone is even higher, but unfortunately those data are somewhat behind — the latest is for September, when domestic air travel was several percent higher than the average of domestic and international travel. Continue reading

Slow & Boring vs. Fast & Wasteful

Matthew Yglesias thinks that Amtrak’s latest “vision” is “slow and boring” and that Amtrak instead should spend money on high-speed trains in the Boston-Washington corridor. But Yglesias’ vision is no better; it might be faster, but it also means faster spending of money on worthless projects.

Amtrak’s 2021 “vision” for expanding its rail service. Click image for a larger view.

The first thing to note is that Amtrak’s latest plan is not so much a vision as it is a smorgasbord of pork barrel. Amtrak told the states, “We have this free federal money to spend; if you want some of it, draw some lines on a map where there are rail lines and maybe we’ll spend it there.” What Yglesias calls a vision is a taxpayers’ nightmare of idiotic rail projects. Continue reading

France Bans Rail Competitors

Supposedly, European high-speed trains are so successful that the airlines stop operating when new high-speed rail corridors open. The reality is much more dismal: in order to guarantee customers for its trains, France is banning airline flights in corridors served by high-speed rail. This is a tacit admission that government-owned trains can’t compete without forcibly shutting down competitors.

Under the new rule, commercial air flights are banned in corridors where trains can make the same journey in under 150 minutes. So far, this is limited to Paris-Bordeaux, Paris-Lyon, and Paris-Nantes. The French government wanted to extend it to five more city pairs, but the European Commission ruled that France could only ban air travel in corridors that had not just fast but frequent rail service. Members of France’s Green Party also want to extend it to corridors where trains make the journey in under 240 minutes. Continue reading

What Happened to the Land?

Long before their title to the Willamette Valley and Cascade Mountain Wagon Road land grant was secure, the farmers and livestock owners who founded the company put the road and land up for sale. In 1871, they agreed to sell the company to someone named H.K.W. Clarke for just over $160,000 (about $4 million in today’s money), of which Clarke paid $20,000 and the rest was paid by someone named Alexander Weill.

This 36-page booklet was used to try to sell lands from the WV&CM land grant. Click image to download a 26.5-MB PDF of the booklet, which is from the Harvard Library.

At the time, the company had received title to just 107,893 acres, or about one-eighth of the final grant, but since the governor had certified the entire road by 1871, both sides were confident that the company would get the rest. While $160,000 for 860,000 acres of land is only 18-1/2¢ an acre, it is a pretty good return for the company owners who probably spent less than $30,000 building and maintaining the road and got most or all of it back in tolls. Continue reading

Were These Roads Really Necessary?

This is a continuation of my posts about the Willamette Valley & Cascade Mountain Wagon Road.

Before the Willamette Valley and Cascade Mountain wagon road was built, or not built as the case may be, a number of families had started farms near the route of the road in the Prineville area. They planned to claim their lands as homestead as soon as the federal government did a land survey. But once the survey was done, about three dozen of them found themselves on odd-numbered sections that were automatically given to the road company.

This 41-page document published by the House Committee on Military Affairs contains W.F. Prosser’s report on his examination of the wagon road. Click image to download an 11.7-MB PDF of this report.

The wagon road company offered to sell them the land for $1.25 an acre. This, said the company, was the same price the government sold its land for, but homesteaders only had to pay a filing fee that worked out to less than 20 cents an acre. Angered, the settlers sent an 1880 letter to the Department of the Interior arguing that “has never built or con­structed any road as the laws of this State requires roads of that character” and that in the 300 miles from Smith’s Rock to the Snake River “there has been no attempt to open or construct any road by the above named com­pany or anyone else.” Continue reading

Transit Carried 63.7% of 2019 Riders in October

Transit carried 63.7 percent as many riders in October 2022 as October 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. Reflecting falling fuel prices, this was a drop from 66.8 percent in September.

Meanwhile, air travel, as measured by the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints, grew to 94.5 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Data for Amtrak and highway driving are not yet available. Continue reading