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Shut Down Public Transit Now!

By | | Transportation
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An op-ed in InsideSources argues that public transit should be shut down as it is a major source of viral infections. No one reading this will be surprised that the Antiplanner wrote the op-ed, but the Antiplanner isn’t the only one who thinks so.

Writing in yesterday’s USA Today, University of Tennessee law professor Glen Harlan Reynolds points out that “mass transit kills.” I know some commenters on this blog point out that New York subways didn’t have to be as deadly as they were, but just two months ago people didn’t know enough about the virus to know how to protect themselves, with some experts (relying on misinformation from China) even arguing that masks could do more harm than good. Since each infectious disease is different, the safest course is to avoid public transportation.

New York City shut down its subways yesterday morning for the first time in its history. The goal is to give crews a chance to disinfect subway cars and stations and open them up again, but just overnight may not be enough as cars can quickly become reinfected every morning. Continue reading →

What Happens After the Pandemic?

By | | Transportation
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Everyone everywhere is asking how the pandemic will change their business, and transportation agencies are no exception. What do you think?

David Zipper, writing for CityLab, wonders if commuter-train ridership will return after the pandemic. It’s currently down as much as 97 percent in some cities.

Bus ridership hasn’t declined as much as rail — an indication that most rail riders are white-collar workers who can work at home but most bus riders are not — but it’s still down 60 to 70 percent. But transit agency officials everywhere wonder if they will get back the riders they have lost when the pandemic is over. Continue reading →

The Virtues of Autos and Suburbs

By | | Policy brief
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A growing body of research shows that mass transit is the major reason why the coronavirus has been so deadly in New York City. The New York urban area (roughly New York City plus Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester counties in New York plus Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Union counties in New Jersey) provides 45 percent of all transit trips in the United States and, not coincidentally, has seen about 45 percent of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.

Click image to download a four-page pdf of this policy brief.

Despite this, transit advocates have already begun promoting their heavily subsidized form of transportation along with increased restrictions on auto driving—the safest form of travel during an epidemic—after the current pandemic is over. Years of propaganda have successfully demonized cars and urban sprawl, despite the fact that these two interconnected phenomena have produced enormous benefits. Continue reading →

The Metropolitan Transmission Authority

By | | Transportation
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“The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is now the Metropolitan Transmission Authority,” an MTA subway conductor told CBS News. “They are transporting this virus.” (The video with this statement is on Huffington Post.)

That’s been true for awhile, but the problem now is that thousands of homeless people have discovered the comforts of riding subways empty of commuters and other regular riders. The MTA says it has lost 95 percent of its riders but is still providing 25 percent of regular subway service for “essential workers.” However, those essential workers have to step around homeless people and their carts of belongings. Continue reading →

Anniversary

By | | Housekeeping
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In commemoration of the first anniversary of the Antiplanner’s policy briefs, this week’s brief on the MCU School of Transportation Planning was a little more light-hearted than usual. Having skipped the weeks after the Fourth of July, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, I managed to publish 49 briefs in the year. I also published 50 chapters of The Education of an Iconoclast.

Over the next year I plan to continue writing weekly policy briefs, but the Iconoclast is finished for now. At least some of the policy briefs this year will be updates of last year’s briefs as various agencies publish new data. I’ll supplement the briefs with additional posts when I have something to say, but won’t try to do one every day of the week.
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I hope you have found the policy briefs educational. I am happy with the PDF format as I can easily pass them along to reporters, politicians, and activists who make inquiries about various issues and I hope you find them useful enough to do the same. Let me know if you have any feedback on the format as well as the content.

Expanding Transit’s Mission (& Subsidies)

By | | Transportation
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Due to stay-at-home orders, many small transit agencies that focused on providing transportation for elderly and disabled people are carrying hardly any riders anymore. So, to justify the subsidies they received under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, they are getting into a new business: grocery delivery. They are doing so with backing from the Federal Transit Administration, which has written rules that allow agencies wide discretion for how they use CARES funds.

For example, Island Transit, on Whidbey Island, Washington, is offering free delivery service. “Offering free delivery service for essential items is just another way to fulfill our mission,” says the agency’s executive director.

Apparently, their mission is to take jobs and customers away from existing businesses. Numerous companies already offer grocery delivery, including start-ups like Instacart, Shipt, Peapod, Fresh Direct, and Boxed as well as existing supermarkets such as Walmart, Safeway, and Whole Foods (via Amazon Fresh). On Whidbey Island, for example, on-line shoppers can get deliveries from Instacart, Bailey’s Corner Store, Whidbey Island Seafood, Blackberry Moon, and something run by local high-school entrepreneurs called Whidbey Deliveries. Continue reading →

Anti-Auto Nuts Continue to Act Nutty

By | | Transportation
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Evidence is mounting that urban transit has been one of the main spreaders of COVID-19. New York governor Andrew Cuomo says the virus can survive for days on transit seats and metal surfaces. The head of New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority was infected by the virus and the head of New Jersey Transit actually died from it.

In the face of this evidence, anti-auto advocates have given up on their efforts to get people out of their cars and onto transit. As a Huffington Post headline reads, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Forcing Cities To Rethink Public Transportation.”

Just kidding. In fact, despite the headline, the story goes on to tell how anti-auto politicians are using the pandemic to somehow argue that more people should be discouraged from driving. Continue reading →

The MCU School of Transportation Planning

By | | Policy brief
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Why do so many science fiction & fantasy visions of future cities have monorails?
Click image to download a three-page PDF of this brief.

Continue reading →

New Virus Research from China

By | | Transportation
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A recent paper from China finds that the vast majority of public transmissions of COVID-19 in that country took place on various modes of mass transportation. The study examined thousands of cases of virus and traced them to 318 different outbreaks, thereby showing where people were most likely to contract the disease.

Most of the transmissions took place in people’s homes from family members or other relatives. Outside of homes, more than two out of three outbreaks were due to transport, which the paper defines to include “train, private car, high-speed rail, bus, passenger plane, taxi, cruise ship, etc.” However, beyond this statement, the paper focuses exclusively on mass transport, not private cars.

I emailed one of the co-authors of the paper, Yuguo Li, asking whether they had detected any virus transmissions in private automobiles. He wrote back saying they had not, though he admitted that some of the infections that they attributed to being in homes might have taken place in a private car. But the outbreaks attributed by the paper to “transport” were all forms of mass transportation such as planes, trains, and urban transit. Continue reading →

When Is a Black Swan Not a Black Swan?

By | | Transportation
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According to Wikipedia, a black-swan event is “an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.” The Antiplanner’s policy brief about black swans was condensed into an article in the Federalist this week.

Almost as if in response, Nassim Taleb, the person who coined the term “black-swan event,” says he doesn’t believe this pandemic is a black swan. Why not? Because he predicted it!

He might have predicted that a pandemic would eventually take place. Tom Clancy predicted that someone would fly an airplane into important buildings in the United States. The Weather Service predicted that Hurricane Katrina would hit the Gulf Coast. Many, including the Antiplanner, predicted that the housing bubble of 2006 would lead to a financial crisis. Continue reading →