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Transit Use Shrinks to Insignificance

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Transit in 2022 carried less than 1 percent of passenger travel in 461 out of the nation’s 487 urban areas and less than half a percent of passenger travel in 426 of those urban areas. It carried more than 2 percent in only 7 urban areas and more than 3 percent in just two: New York and San Francisco-Oakland. These numbers are calculated from the 2022 National Transit Database released last October and the 2022 Highway Statistics released last month, specifically table HM-72, which has driving data by urban area.

Highways were a little less congested in 2022 than before the pandemic. Oregon Department of Transportation photo.

In 2019, transit carried 11.6 percent of motorized passenger travel in the New York urban area, a share that fell to 8.5 percent in 2022. Transit carried 6.8 percent in the San Francisco-Oakland area in 2019, which fell to 3.6 percent in 2022. Transit carried around 3.5 percent in Chicago, Honolulu, Seattle, and Washington urban areas, which fell to 2.5 percent in Honolulu, 2.1 percent in Seattle, and less than 1.8 percent in Chicago and Washington in 2022. Anchorage, Ithaca, and State College PA are the only other urban areas where transit carried more than 2 percent of travel in 2022. Continue reading →

The Benefits of Congestion Relief

By | | Transportation
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Data published by the University of Minnesota Accessibility Observatory a few months ago reveals some of the benefits of congestion relief that resulted from the COVID pandemic. I’ve used 2019 data in the past to show that residents of U.S. urban areas can reach far more jobs in a 20-minute auto drive than a 60-minute transit trip. The latest data for 2021 reveal that the number of jobs reachable by transit or bicycle was about 9 percent greater in 2021 than 2019, but the number reachable by a 20-minute auto drive was 66 percent greater.

On average, over 50 urban areas and for trips of 10 to 60 minutes, auto users were able to reach 48 percent more jobs in 2021 than in 2019. Solid lines show 2021 and dotted lines show 2019.

These numbers are the average of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas, but for some the increased access caused by less traffic was much greater. In a 20-minute auto drive, residents of Atlanta, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, and Washington could reach more than twice as many jobs in 2021 than in 2019. Of course, jobs are only one possible set of destinations that became more accessible; other social and economic opportunities also became equally more accessible. Continue reading →

Who Benefits from Variable-Priced Road Tolls?

By | | Housing, Transportation
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The Oregon Department of Transportation is planning to toll all lanes of major freeway in the Portland area soon. The San Francisco Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission is considering tolling all freeways in the region later this decade. Plans such as these always raise charges that they will heavily impact low-income drivers.

An electronic tollgate that collects tolls without slowing traffic. Photo by OnionBulb.

In response, the Antiplanner has argued that low-income people will greatly benefit from variable-priced tolling. While many taxes, including gas taxes, are regressive, tolling is not because people pay for only what they use. Congestion, however, is regressive because low-income people are less likely to be able to work at home or on flexible schedules that allow them to avoid rush hour. “If variable user fees can relieve that congestion, working-class people will be among the greatest beneficiaries.” Continue reading →

September VMT Continues to Exceed 2019

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove 1.4 percent more miles in September 2023 than in the same month in 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have exceeded 2019 numbers in seven out of the last twelve months.

Most of the increase in driving was in rural areas. Although September’s rural driving was 4.6 percent greater in 2023 than 2019, urban driving was only 0.1 percent greater. The increase in urban driving was on collector and local streets; freeway and arterial driving were still a little short of 100 percent of 2019 miles. Continue reading →

Keep Highway User Fees

By | | Transportation
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The Tax Foundation notes that Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has proposed to save consumers money by eliminating federal fuel taxes. That’s an extremely short-sighted idea that would actually cost consumers in the long run. As the foundation’s writers, Alex Muresianu and William McBride, observe, Haley could have proposed that the gas tax, an imperfect user fee, be replaced with a better user fee such as a mileage-based fee. But instead she proposed to simply eliminate the tax.

A sunset for gas taxes?

The most recent report indicates that, as of yesterday, the price of regular gasoline averaged about $3.64 nationwide. Eliminating the federal gas tax would reduce that to by 18¢ to $3.46 a gallon — less than 5 percent. Encouraging more domestic oil production could cut fuel prices by more than a dollar a gallon, down to what prices were in around 2015-2020. If Haley wants driving to be more affordable (which I think would be a good thing), that’s what she should promote. Continue reading →

Do Higher Speeds = Higher Incomes?

By | | Transportation
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A new study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (ungated copy) finds that, whaddyknow, faster urban speeds are associated with richer countries. The study looked at urban travel speeds in 1,200 cities around the world to “find that improved urban mobility is an important and previously undocumented feature of economic development.”

Important yes, but hardly previously undocumented, as researchers such as Rémy Prud’Homme in France and Sam Staley and Adrian Moore in the United States have looked at the relationship between travel speeds and economic productivity. That has also been a consistent theme of the Antiplanner, especially when comparing the ability of fast cars vs. slow transit to help people out of poverty. Continue reading →

July 2023 Transit Ridership 65% of July 2019

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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After reaching 70 percent of pre-pandemic numbers in June, transit ridership in July fell back to 65 percent of July 2019, according to data released last week by the Federal Transit Administration. Since July 2019 had 22 working days while July 2023 only had 20, this decline is not surprising.

Meanwhile, Americans drove 97.2 percent as many miles in July 2023 as in the same month of 2019, according to Federal Highway Administration data released last week as well. Amtrak’s monthly performance report indicates that the railroad carried 91.2 percent as many passenger-miles in July 2023 as July 2019, while the Transportation Security Administration says that 98.8 percent as many travelers passed through security in July as in 2019. Continue reading →

June Driving 0.75% Greater Than in 2019

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Americans drove slightly more miles in June 2023 than they did in June 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. Highway driving first reached 100 percent of pre-pandemic levels in June of 2021 and has been hovering around 100 percent ever since. In comparison, flying didn’t reach 100 percent until January of this year, while Amtrak has been hovering around 90 percent since August 2022 and transit has never exceeded 72 percent.

For a detailed discussion of Amtrak results, see last Tuesday’s post. For a detailed discussion of transit and airline results, see last Saturday’s post.

Urban driving was only 99.0 percent of pre-pandemic levels, but rural driving more than made up for it at 105.3 percent. Total miles of driving exceeded 2019 numbers in 27 states, with the biggest gains in Idaho (117%), Missouri (114%), Alaska (114%), Colorado (113%), Wyoming (112%), and Michigan (111%). Driving is still only 76 percent of pre-COVID levels in the District of Columbia and is also woefully short in Illinois (84%), Massachusetts (91%), Maryland (92%), California (93%), Hawaii (94%), Washington (94%), and Georgia (94%). Driving in all other states was at least 95 percent of 2019 miles. Continue reading →

Transit’s Minuscule Share of 2021 Travel

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Public transit carried 6.4 percent of 2021 motorized passenger travel in the New York urban area. It also carried 1.6 percent in Honolulu, 1.5 percent in San Francisco-Oakland, 1.4 percent in Seattle, 1.2 percent in Chicago, and 1.1 percent in Salt Lake City. In every other urban area it carried less than 1 percent; nationwide, transit carried just 0.7 percent of all motorized urban travel.

Chicago transit carried 1.2 percent, autos the other 98.8 percent of motorized passenger travel.

I calculated these numbers by comparing passenger-miles in the 2021 National Transit Database, which was released last fall, with daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) by urban area in table HM-72 of Highway Statistics, which was recently released by the Federal Highway Administration. To make the numbers comparable, I multiplied DVMT by 365 to get annual data and by 1.7 to account for vehicle occupancies, 1.7 being the result when dividing passenger-miles by vehicle-miles in Highway Statistics table VM-1. These numbers don’t include walking, bikes and e-bikes, or scooters, but they do include motorcycles. Continue reading →

Cities More Accessible in U.S. Than Europe

By | | Transportation
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“Should the U.S. repair crumbling roads and highways to enhance car-based mobility or replace them with new public transit infrastructure that re-orients U.S. commuting systems away from their current car dependence?” asks a paper recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. To answer the question, the paper compared accessibility via transit and driving in about 50 U.S. and 50 European cities. If transit made European cities more accessible, the researchers reasoned, then it would make sense for the U.S. to emphasize transit as well.

Should the United States attempt to build as much transit infrastructure as is found in Europe even if doing so reduces people’s access to jobs and other economic opportunities?

Instead, the researchers — two economists from Yale and one from UC San Diego — found that U.S. urbanites had far more access to their cities than Europeans did in theirs. Moreover, Europeans using cars had far more access to their cities than those who relied on transit. This shouldn’t be a surprise to those familiar with the research published by the University of Minnesota’s Accessibility Observatory, but it seems to have surprised the people doing this research. Continue reading →