Search Results for: plan bay area

We Have No Customers So Give Us Money

Transit agencies are stepping up their campaigns for more subsidies to make up for their lack of riders during the coronavirus pandemic. The New York Times reports that, unless Congress forks over billions more than it has already given the agencies, transit systems could experience a death spiral.

Technically, a death spiral takes place if cuts in service cause a loss of customers leading to more cuts in service. But if they don’t have any customers, they can’t spiral much further downward.

Out in California, Caltrain, which operates commuter trains between San Francisco and San Jose, has lost 95 percent of its customers. Before the pandemic, Caltrain riders earned an average of $120,000 per year, which means most of them are probably now working from home and many will probably never return to commuting. The logical thing for Caltrain to do would be to reduce service for the duration and start up again when riders return. Continue reading

Stupid Responses to Collapsed Ridership

San Francisco Bay Area transit agencies are “struggling” as a result of the coronavirus, says one reporter. “Flailing about” would be a more accurate term. As noted yesterday, Bay Area transit agencies carried 86 percent fewer riders in May 2020 than May 2019. They basically have no idea how to cope with this other than to demand more subsidies from taxpayers and concessions from cities.

CalTrain, which offers commuter trains from San Francisco to San Jose, says it is carrying twice as many riders per day as at the low point of the pandemic. That means weekday ridership is up from 1,500 to 3,000. That’s still less than 5 percent of the usual number, which in 2018 was 64,000.

AC Transit, which serves Alameda and Contra Costa counties, warns that it may have to cut dozens of bus routes and reduce service on many more. But that’s an appropriate response when no one is riding transit. Continue reading

To Densify or Not to Densify: The Debate Continues

Is there a huge demand for high-density housing that is unmet due to oppressive land-use regulations such as single-family zoning? Do homeowners support single-family zoning in order to create a cartel boosting their home values? Can denser housing reduce housing prices in high-priced regions?

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

Market urbanist Scott Beyer and I have been addressing these kinds of questions in our continuing debate over whether densification or sprawl are better solutions to housing affordability problems. This debate began in a Reason Foundation video called “Density or Sprawl? How to Solve the Urban Housing Crisis.” We met face-to-face, sort of, in a webcast last week titled “Build Up or Build Out: Solving the Housing Crisis,” in which we were joined by Cato scholar Scott Lincicome. The webcast generated a number of questions from the audience that weren’t answered during the event due to technical difficulties. I also posted a short article last week on the Antiplanner and Scott Beyer put up a post on his Facebook page. Continue reading

Demand the Right to Pay for Your Own Transportation!

Sixty years ago, America had the finest transportation system in the world, and it was almost all unsubsidized. Congress had subsidized the construction of some railroads, but that included only about 7 percent of the nation’s rail mileage. Congress had also subsidized the construction of some airports, but by 1960 that was near an end. Most of America’s highways had been built and maintained out of highway user fees such as gasoline taxes and tolls. The nation’s transit systems were mostly private and even the public ones funded their operating costs and many of their capital costs exclusively out of transit fares.

Click image to download a six-page PDF of this policy brief.

That began to change in the 1960s. In 1964, Congress promised capital grants to cities and states that took over transit companies. Most of the government-owned transit agencies also used tax dollars to cover part of their operating costs. In 1970, Congress took over the nation’s intercity passenger trains and subsidies to Amtrak exceeded $1 billion a year. In 1981, Congress began diverting highway user fees to pay for transit. This led to such a political demand for those funds that, in 1998, Congress gave up on the idea that expenditures out of the highway transit fund should be limited to user fees paid into that fund. Today, Congress is transferring $10 billion per year of general funds into the highway trust fund to keep the money flowing without raising gas taxes. Continue reading

Transit Lost 84 Percent of Riders in April

Transit ridership in April 2020 was 84 percent less than it had been in April 2019, according to data released last week by the Federal Transit Administration. The media has reported falling ridership due to the coronavirus and resulting quarantines, but these data reveal exactly how much it has fallen for each mode and urban area.

Click image to download a three-page PDF of this policy brief.

For example, ridership is down 92 percent in the New York urban area and 93 percent in Philadelphia but only 58 percent in Dallas-Ft. Worth and Las Vegas. The Bay Area Rapid Transit District saw a 94 percent decline, but ridership in Tucson fell by just 44 percent. Continue reading

Private Buses: The Forgotten Mode

A couple of weeks ago, more than 600 motorcoaches — that special breed of buses with extra-comfortable seats and large luggage bays beneath the passenger area — held a rally in Washington DC to complain that their government-subsidized competitors received a bailout but they did not. Yesterday, California motorcoach operators held a similar rally in Sacramento asking the governor to re-open the state, but it was overshadowed by George Floyd protests.

A few years ago, the Antiplanner wrote a paper called Intercity Buses: The Forgotten Mode, but I guess it is still forgotten. When we think of intercity travel, we think of planes, cars, and Amtrak, but rarely think about buses. Congress seems to be the same way.

The American Bus Association‘s most recent motorcoach census estimates that buses carried 64 billion passenger miles in 2017. That’s 10 times as many as Amtrak. In fact, it’s more than Amtrak and urban transit combined. Continue reading

The Rise and Fall of Downtown, USA

What do you think of when you hear the word “city”? Most people envision a downtown filled with skyscrapers surrounded by lower-rise developments. At least, that’s what appears in most photographs, and the first two dozen of them, in a Google image search for “city.” Some even argue that cities such as Phoenix that don’t have big, skyscraper-filled downtowns aren’t “real cities.”

Click image to download a six-page PDF of this policy brief.

However, as Joel Garreau pointed out nearly thirty years ago in his great book, Edge City, cities like that are “abberations. We built cities that way for less than a century.” Before about 1840, cities had no defined central business districts as we know them today. The first skyscrapers weren’t built until the 1880s. Since 1920, the economic forces that led to the construction of dense downtowns have been largely replaced by decentralizing forces. Continue reading

50. Lessons from an Iconoclast

Fifty years ago this week, I was planning the events for my high school’s version of the first National Environmental Teach-In (later called Earth Day). All of the speakers my friends and I invited were either politicians or government officials. If I knew then what I know now, that event would have been much different. Here are a few of the main lessons I’ve learned since then.

  1. Don’t trust the government

Everyone knows that “I’m from the government and I’m here to help you” is a joke. Yet too many people still believe that government works the way their high school teachers taught them. I recently watched some college students debate whether to privatize public transit, and one of them said, “I think transit should be run for the public interest and not for profits.” I wondered what made him think that any public agency operates in the public interest, but that’s what we are taught and that’s what many implicitly believe.

People in Congress and state legislatures know better; they’ve seen how the sausage is made. Yet most of the legislation they pass assumes that the bureaucracies they create and fund will automatically work in the public interest. The Supreme Court put this assumption into a legal precedent called the Chevron decision. In reality, we can’t trust any level of government — the legislators, the executives, or the bureaucrats — to work in the public interest, even if we could define it. Continue reading

What Were They Thinking?

If light rail was once viewed as an inexpensive alternative to true rapid transit, some cities saw commuter rail as an even less-expensive way of reintroducing rail transit into their regions. After all, most commuter-rail lines used tracks that already existed, so how much could it cost to run passenger trains on those tracks?

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Beguiled by this reasoning, nearly twenty different transit agencies have built commuter rail in urban areas that didn’t have rail transit in 1980. Many of these proved to be absolute disasters, with fare revenues covering as little as 4 percent of operating costs despite having spent hundreds of millions of dollars on capital costs. This brief will look at various commuter-rail projects that have started since 1980 to see which proved total disasters and which were only partial disasters. Continue reading

Dude, Where’s My Driverless Car?

A minor footnote in the history of the COVID-19 pandemic is that this may be the first major crisis in history that was assisted by driverless vehicles. A Chinese company named Neolix is using its driverless delivery vans to transport medical supplies and sterilize streets in Wuhan.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this brief.

I’ve been promoting the idea that the advent of driverless cars means we shouldn’t be wasting money building archaic rail transit projects since 2010. Now, a decade later, seems an appropriate time to see how far the industry has come and how far it has to go to make widespread use of driverless cars a reality. Some say that the task of creating a fully driverless car is more difficult than anticipated and we won’t have them for many more years. Continue reading