Transit’s Minuscule Share of 2021 Travel

Public transit carried 6.4 percent of 2021 motorized passenger travel in the New York urban area. It also carried 1.6 percent in Honolulu, 1.5 percent in San Francisco-Oakland, 1.4 percent in Seattle, 1.2 percent in Chicago, and 1.1 percent in Salt Lake City. In every other urban area it carried less than 1 percent; nationwide, transit carried just 0.7 percent of all motorized urban travel.

Chicago transit carried 1.2 percent, autos the other 98.8 percent of motorized passenger travel.

I calculated these numbers by comparing passenger-miles in the 2021 National Transit Database, which was released last fall, with daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) by urban area in table HM-72 of Highway Statistics, which was recently released by the Federal Highway Administration. To make the numbers comparable, I multiplied DVMT by 365 to get annual data and by 1.7 to account for vehicle occupancies, 1.7 being the result when dividing passenger-miles by vehicle-miles in Highway Statistics table VM-1. These numbers don’t include walking, bikes and e-bikes, or scooters, but they do include motorcycles. Continue reading

Cities More Accessible in U.S. Than Europe

“Should the U.S. repair crumbling roads and highways to enhance car-based mobility or replace them with new public transit infrastructure that re-orients U.S. commuting systems away from their current car dependence?” asks a paper recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. To answer the question, the paper compared accessibility via transit and driving in about 50 U.S. and 50 European cities. If transit made European cities more accessible, the researchers reasoned, then it would make sense for the U.S. to emphasize transit as well.

Should the United States attempt to build as much transit infrastructure as is found in Europe even if doing so reduces people’s access to jobs and other economic opportunities?

Instead, the researchers — two economists from Yale and one from UC San Diego — found that U.S. urbanites had far more access to their cities than Europeans did in theirs. Moreover, Europeans using cars had far more access to their cities than those who relied on transit. This shouldn’t be a surprise to those familiar with the research published by the University of Minnesota’s Accessibility Observatory, but it seems to have surprised the people doing this research. Continue reading

Transit Continues to Lag Behind Driving

Americans drove more miles in May 2023 than the same month of 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration earlier this week. Transit ridership, however, was still less than 70 percent of 2019 levels, according to the Federal Transit Administration’s latest data.

At 69.9 percent of pre-pandemic levels, transit ridership was very close to 70 percent, a threshold it has breached only once since March 2020. To be fair, Cleveland’s regional transit agency is late in reporting ridership numbers. Though the agency carries only 0.3 percent of the nation’s transit riders, when its numbers are added, the national total for May will slightly exceed 70 percent of 2019. Continue reading

Highway Safety Results Are Mixed

Highway fatalities declined slightly in 2022 despite an increase in the miles of driving, and they declined again in the first three months of 2023. However, the changes are small and it’s too soon to say whether this is a trend or just a short-term quirk in the data.

Photo by Ragesoss.

Short-term changes in fatalities and fatality rates are something of a mystery. In the long run, safer roads and safer cars have pushed down fatalities from a peak of 55,600 in 1972, for a rate of 44.1 deaths per billion vehicle-miles of travel, to a low of under 32,500 in 2011, for a rate of only 11.0 deaths per billion vehicle-miles. The rate fell even lower to 10.8 per billion in 2014. Continue reading

Interstate 95 and Induced Demand

Kudos to the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation for constructing a temporary replacement for a collapsed overpass in just 12 days, something that many predicted would take months. The replacement is just six lanes wide rather than the eight on the original overpass, but that leaves room for the department to construct a permanent replacement.

Some people are drawing the wrong lessons from the response to the highway collapse, however. According to Joe Cortright, the fact that there was no “carmageddon” during the 12 days the highway was closed proves that we don’t need highways at all. According to what Cortright calls the “science of ‘induced demand,'” building new roads simply leads to more driving and, conversely, closing roads leads to “traffic evaporation.” Continue reading

A Home for Orphan Roads

North Carolina is one of a handful of states — others include Alaska, Delaware, Virginia, and West Virginia — where counties don’t have their own road departments. This means most roads outside of cities are either owned by the states or are private. However, some roads don’t have any clear owners and are effectively abandoned, leading them to be called orphan roads.

Click image to download a 1.1-MB PDF of this report.

This becomes a problem when people buy a home not realizing that the road that the home is on is orphaned. Eventually, the road wears out and homeowners face thousands of dollars of maintenance costs. They then typically demand that the state take over maintenance, which would force other taxpayers to subsidize the homeowners. North Carolina’s John Locke Foundation asked the Antiplanner to take a look at this issue. Continue reading

April Miles of Driving 91% of 2019

Americans drove 91 percent as many miles in April 2023 as they did in the same month in 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. Relative to before the pandemic, driving hasn’t been this low since August 2020.

See last Wednesday’s post for a discussion of transit and air travel and last Thursday’s post for a discussion of Amtrak travel.

As I pointed out last week, April 2023 had two fewer business days than April 2019. But the number of business days seems to have less of an effect on driving than on transit. After all, commuters make up at least 40 percent of transit ridership but less than 20 percent of vehicles on the road. Driving in February, which has the same number of business days each year, was 104 percent of 2019 while driving in March, which had two more business days than in 2019, was 100 percent of 2019. Continue reading

Transforming Regressive Taxes into Profits

Just once, I’d like to see a regional transportation plan that didn’t try to transform the region into some planner’s fantasy of how people should live but instead tried to serve the actual transportation needs of the people who lived there. Unfortunately, given that the federal government is giving out tens of billions of dollars for “transformative” projects, we are mainly seeing plans whose only real transformations will be to make some rich people richer and most poor people poorer.

Click image to download a 13.0-MB PDF of this 346-page draft regional transportation plan for Baltimore.

I bring this up because of an op ed earlier this week by two Baltimore-area politicians promoting that region’s $70 billion plan which, they promise, will produce “transformative changes to our transportation system.” More than half of the capital projects in the plan will be for urban transit, including the Red light-rail line that had previously been rejected as a waste of money as well as another, even more-expensive light-rail line. Continue reading

U.S. Drove 4.3% More Miles in 2/23 Than in 2/19

Americans drove 224.1 billion miles in February 2023, which was 4.3 percent more than in the same month in 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. This was the biggest increase in driving over pre-pandemic levels since the pandemic began.

For more information on transit, Amtrak, and air travel, see Monday’s post.

Driving increased, relative to 2019, on all kinds of roads in both urban and rural areas. Urban driving was 2.5 percent greater than in 2019; rural driving was 10.2 percent greater. Continue reading

Vision Zero Accomplishes Zero

Cities across the country have passed Vision Zero plans that resolve to reduce accident fatalities to zero by 2030. Planners seem to think that if we resolve strongly enough, and maybe cross our fingers, these plans will work.

Photo by Alextredz.

To be fair, the plans do more than resolve. Most of them focus on slowing down traffic, either by reducing speed limits or by narrowing lanes, installing traffic circles, or taking other steps to force drivers to slow down. This is based on the obvious proposition that someone hit by a car going 20 miles per hour is less likely to die than someone hit by a car going 50 miles per hour. Continue reading