Highway Safety Results Are Mixed

Highway fatalities declined slightly in 2022 despite an increase in the miles of driving, and they declined again in the first three months of 2023. However, the changes are small and it’s too soon to say whether this is a trend or just a short-term quirk in the data.

Photo by Ragesoss.

Short-term changes in fatalities and fatality rates are something of a mystery. In the long run, safer roads and safer cars have pushed down fatalities from a peak of 55,600 in 1972, for a rate of 44.1 deaths per billion vehicle-miles of travel, to a low of under 32,500 in 2011, for a rate of only 11.0 deaths per billion vehicle-miles. The rate fell even lower to 10.8 per billion in 2014. Continue reading

Interstate 95 and Induced Demand

Kudos to the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation for constructing a temporary replacement for a collapsed overpass in just 12 days, something that many predicted would take months. The replacement is just six lanes wide rather than the eight on the original overpass, but that leaves room for the department to construct a permanent replacement.

Some people are drawing the wrong lessons from the response to the highway collapse, however. According to Joe Cortright, the fact that there was no “carmageddon” during the 12 days the highway was closed proves that we don’t need highways at all. According to what Cortright calls the “science of ‘induced demand,'” building new roads simply leads to more driving and, conversely, closing roads leads to “traffic evaporation.” Continue reading

A Home for Orphan Roads

North Carolina is one of a handful of states — others include Alaska, Delaware, Virginia, and West Virginia — where counties don’t have their own road departments. This means most roads outside of cities are either owned by the states or are private. However, some roads don’t have any clear owners and are effectively abandoned, leading them to be called orphan roads.

Click image to download a 1.1-MB PDF of this report.

This becomes a problem when people buy a home not realizing that the road that the home is on is orphaned. Eventually, the road wears out and homeowners face thousands of dollars of maintenance costs. They then typically demand that the state take over maintenance, which would force other taxpayers to subsidize the homeowners. North Carolina’s John Locke Foundation asked the Antiplanner to take a look at this issue. Continue reading

April Miles of Driving 91% of 2019

Americans drove 91 percent as many miles in April 2023 as they did in the same month in 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. Relative to before the pandemic, driving hasn’t been this low since August 2020.

See last Wednesday’s post for a discussion of transit and air travel and last Thursday’s post for a discussion of Amtrak travel.

As I pointed out last week, April 2023 had two fewer business days than April 2019. But the number of business days seems to have less of an effect on driving than on transit. After all, commuters make up at least 40 percent of transit ridership but less than 20 percent of vehicles on the road. Driving in February, which has the same number of business days each year, was 104 percent of 2019 while driving in March, which had two more business days than in 2019, was 100 percent of 2019. Continue reading

Transforming Regressive Taxes into Profits

Just once, I’d like to see a regional transportation plan that didn’t try to transform the region into some planner’s fantasy of how people should live but instead tried to serve the actual transportation needs of the people who lived there. Unfortunately, given that the federal government is giving out tens of billions of dollars for “transformative” projects, we are mainly seeing plans whose only real transformations will be to make some rich people richer and most poor people poorer.

Click image to download a 13.0-MB PDF of this 346-page draft regional transportation plan for Baltimore.

I bring this up because of an op ed earlier this week by two Baltimore-area politicians promoting that region’s $70 billion plan which, they promise, will produce “transformative changes to our transportation system.” More than half of the capital projects in the plan will be for urban transit, including the Red light-rail line that had previously been rejected as a waste of money as well as another, even more-expensive light-rail line. Continue reading

U.S. Drove 4.3% More Miles in 2/23 Than in 2/19

Americans drove 224.1 billion miles in February 2023, which was 4.3 percent more than in the same month in 2019, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration yesterday. This was the biggest increase in driving over pre-pandemic levels since the pandemic began.

For more information on transit, Amtrak, and air travel, see Monday’s post.

Driving increased, relative to 2019, on all kinds of roads in both urban and rural areas. Urban driving was 2.5 percent greater than in 2019; rural driving was 10.2 percent greater. Continue reading

Vision Zero Accomplishes Zero

Cities across the country have passed Vision Zero plans that resolve to reduce accident fatalities to zero by 2030. Planners seem to think that if we resolve strongly enough, and maybe cross our fingers, these plans will work.

Photo by Alextredz.

To be fair, the plans do more than resolve. Most of them focus on slowing down traffic, either by reducing speed limits or by narrowing lanes, installing traffic circles, or taking other steps to force drivers to slow down. This is based on the obvious proposition that someone hit by a car going 20 miles per hour is less likely to die than someone hit by a car going 50 miles per hour. Continue reading

The Most Congested Cities

The most congested urban area in America in 2022 was Chicago, where the average auto commuter lost 155 hours to traffic delays. That was only one hour less than London, the most congested urban area in the world, or at least the most congested city evaluated in the latest INRIX global traffic scorecard.

Prior to the pandemic, more than half the people who worked in downtown Chicago took transit to work, but the city was still very congested and — according to INRIX — is even more congested today. Photo by Michael Kappel.

The second-most congested U.S. urban area was Boston, with 134 hours of delay per driver, followed by New York at 117 hours. Los Angeles, which has often been at the top of the list, was way down in 2022, suffering 95 hours of delay per driver, and was edged out by San Francisco at 97 hours. Miami and Philadelphia were between New York and San Francisco. Continue reading

Sound Planning or Just Luck?

In 2018, Jersey City adopted Vision Zero, the goal of reducing traffic fatalities to zero. In the past year, it had zero fatalities on city-owned streets. Mission accomplished!

A street in Jersey City. Photo by schokker64.

A Bloomberg article yesterday breathlessly reviewed all the things the city did to reduce fatalities to zero, including roundabouts, road diets, bike lanes, lower speed limits, and the closure of one street to automobiles. Yet there isn’t any real evidence that any of these steps contributed to reduced fatalities. Continue reading

October Driving Greater Than in 2019

Americans drove 0.6 percent more miles in October 2022 than the same month in 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. This is the second month in a row and the twelfth month in all that driving exceeded pre-pandemic levels since the pandemic began.

See previous posts for information about data from Amtrak and transit and air travel.

Driving exceeded 2019 miles in 26 states, while it fell short in 24 states and DC. The states that saw the greatest increase in driving, relative to October 2019 miles, were South Dakota (22.6%), Arizona (18.8%), Rhode Island (17.6%), Montana (15.4%), Missouri (11.2%), and South Carolina (11.1%). States that are still furthest from full recovery include California (-8.7%), Massachusetts (-8.0%), Delaware (-8.0%), Pennsylvania (-7.4%), and Maryland (-6.1%). Also, DC is -12.6%. Continue reading