Are we living in a black hole and I just passed through a wormhole into another universe? That’s the only explanation I can think of for a recent New York Times article (no paywall) by Ezra Klein praising a new mid rise in San Francisco “that might be the answer to San Francisco’s homelessness crisis.” Built in three years (half the normal time in the Bay Area) using modular construction methods, the building costs less than $400,000 per unit compared with $600,000 to $700,000 for other similar projects in San Francisco.

The reddish-brown color isn’t paint; it’s rust, or what the architect calls “weathered steel.” That’s just as well in San Francisco’s rainy, salty environment as I doubt many people will want to see this building last for very long. Photo by Bruce Damonte, David Baker Architects.

My first thought was “$400,000 still sounds pretty high for any kind of ‘affordable housing.'” My second thought was, “How big are those housing units anyway?” Continue reading →

Proponents of a bill winding its way through the Colorado legislature assume that increased housing densities will make housing more affordable and will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Neither of these assumptions are valid, according to an article in Complete Colorado. And you know it’s true, because I wrote it.

This chart compared population densities and housing affordability in the nation’s top 100 urban areas.

You may have seen diagrams like the above here before, but I made this one using the latest density data from the 2020 census combined with housing affordability data from the 2020 American Community Survey. Counting the top 50 urban areas, the correlation was 0.85 (where 1 is perfect and anything close to 0 is completely random); for the top 100, it was 0.79; for the top 200 it was still a respectable 0.70. Continue reading →

To help fund the $1.3 billion that Los Angeles’ city council believes it needs to house the homeless, the city decided to impose a “mansion tax” of 4 percent on the sales of any homes or commercial properties above $5 million and 5.5 percent on sales above $10 million. This was projected to bring in $900 million a year, funding most of the homeless program.

This home is currently on the market in Los Angeles for an asking price of $5.667 million. Many homes of this size are available for under $1 million in Houston and San Antonio and few are asking more than $2 million.

The reality is far different because planners, as usual, failed to take into account how their regulations and taxes would influence human behavior. In the month before the tax went into effect on April 1, 126 homes sold for more than $5 million. In the month since? Just two. Continue reading →