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Airlines: Our #2 Source of Mobility

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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Airlines carried Americans 77 percent as many miles of domestic travel in 2021 as they did in 2019, according to data recently released by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. International air travel was still far short of pre-pandemic levels, being just 29 percent of 2019 numbers. The 578 billion miles of domestic air travel was about the same as in 2013, while the 1,743 miles per capita was slightly more than in 2003.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

U.S. airlines are, or should be, the envy of the world. They carry Americans far more miles per capita than airlines (or, for that matter, railroads) of almost any other country. Airport infrastructure is in excellent condition: as of 2020, 85 percent of commercial airport runways were in good condition, 13 percent in fair condition, and only 1 percent in poor condition. U.S. airlines’ safety record is second to none, experiencing just 14 fatalities while carrying more than 7 trillion passenger-miles since 2010. And airlines do all this at a profit: while some companies have lost money in some years, the domestic airline industry as a whole earned a profit in every year since 2010. Continue reading →

Prolonging the Climate Crisis

By | | Transportation
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It is probably appropriate that climate extremists have named their policies after Roosevelt’s New Deal, a response to the Great Depression that, most economists agree, prolonged that depression. I find myself increasingly skeptical of the climate-change narrative, not because of the data but because the people promoting it seem more interested in social engineering than in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Click image to download this report.

A case in point is a recent report from the Climate and Community Project, a “project of the Tides Center.” Full disclosure: the Tides Foundation once gave money to the Thoreau Institute, but they stopped when they figured out I wasn’t a socialist. In any case, the new report proposes “a green new deal for transportation” that will “build just and sustainable communities.” Note that social justice has suddenly become as important as climate change. Continue reading →

Gas Prices and Transit

By | | Transportation
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While no Americans are happy about the “special military operation” in Ukraine, transit agencies and advocates are positively giddy about the effect of that operation on gas prices. Despite all their bombast about light rail, bus-rapid transit, and other expensive programs, they know that, historically, the only thing that really boosts transit ridership is rising fuel prices.

How high will prices go — and more important, how long will they remain high? Photo by Chris Yarzab.

The problem with that is that the forces against transit are much stronger than they were before the pandemic, when more than 7 million people a day marched to jobs in big city downtowns. That was transit’s target market, and now it has all but evaporated. Continue reading →

A New Take on Induced Demand

By | | Transportation
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Induced demand is not a phenomena to be feared but one to be welcomed, according to a recent Reason Foundation report by Steven Polzin. Demand for travel is always growing, and if new roads reduce the cost of travel, they will be used. Highway opponents say that’s why we shouldn’t build new roads, but Polzin points out there are many economic benefits from new road capacity and even from the demand “induced” by that new capacity.

Click image to download a 1.2-MB PDF of this 35-page report.

New road capacity, Polzin says, allows people who either weren’t traveling at all due to congestion or who were traveling at inconvenient times or routes to avoid congestion to travel at preferred times and routes. This makes it appear that new capacity has “induced” demand but all it has really done is released demand suppressed by congestion. To the extent that new capacity leads to new travel, says Polzin, that generates economic activity that is good for the region. Continue reading →

Will the Infrastructure Bill Improve Transit?

By | | Transportation
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The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs held a hearing yesterday on how last year’s infrastructure law will “advance” transit. Three of the witnesses represented transit agencies or transit unions and all talked about how the law will fund new transit projects, but none talked about whether those projects would lead to more riders.

In contrast, testimony from the Antiplanner argued that taxpayers have spent well over $1.5 trillion in the last 50 years only to see transit ridership per urban resident decline. The new spending will enrich engineering and construction firms but not lead to more riders. My testimony begins at 55:30; here is my written testimony and here is my speaking text.

Except for ranking committee member Pat Toomey, the only senators in attendance were Democrats. They were less interested in my dire predictions than in hearing from the agency representatives about how excited they were to have more money to spend. Continue reading →

A Century-Old Love of Rail Monopolies

By | | Policy brief, Transportation
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In the mid-1990s, the United Kingdom privatized its government-owned railroads. That privatization proved to be a disaster, and now the country is renationalizing the trains.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Except none of these things are true. Britain didn’t really privatize its railroads in the 1990s. What it did do turned out to be pretty successful but, like many transportation systems, failed to survive the pandemic. What it’s doing now isn’t really nationalization but merely rebranding of the system—in effect, rearranging the deck chairs. Continue reading →

Measuring Housing Affordability

By | | Housing
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Vancouver, BC, had the least affordable housing in North America in 2021, according to Wendell Cox’s latest International Housing Affordability report. The median home price in Vancouver was 13.3 times the median household income, which means almost no one can really afford to buy a home. According to Zillow, condos typically sell for around a million dollars while single-family homes sell for $3 million to $6 million. Yes, those are Canadian dollars, but still unaffordable.

Click image to download a 3.2-MB PDF of this report.

Vancouver was followed by San Jose, whose median home prices were 12.6 times median incomes, and San Francisco, at 11.8. Vancouver was exceeded by Sydney, Australia, at 15.3, and Hong Kong, at a stunning 23.2. As Cox takes pains to point out, all of the most-expensive housing markets are in areas with urban-growth boundaries, greenbelts, or other containment policies. Continue reading →

60 Desks for Every 100 Workers

By | | Transportation
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Mutual of Omaha is building a new headquarters in downtown Omaha, which at first appears to be a revival of downtown fortunes. But the company has 4,000 employees in the Omaha area, and the new headquarters will have room for no more than 2,500 of them, as the rest are expected to work from home on any given day.

Mutual of Omaha’s planned skyscraper may become the tallest building in Omaha — but it will only have enough room for about 60 percent of the company’s Omaha-area employees.

So why locate downtown? Maybe because of the $68.6 million in subsidies — 16 percent of the building’s cost — the city is giving to the insurer. Continue reading →

Won’t Anyone Stop This Ridiculous Project?

By | | Transportation
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Less than a month ago, the California High-Speed Rail Authority released its latest business plan admitting that its previous cost estimates were too low. Now the agency has released an even newer document admitting that the cost of building the line from California’s Central Valley to the Bay Area will be 40 percent more than estimated in the business plan.

Click image to go to download page for this environmental impact report.

This latest document is an environmental impact statement that is literally thousands of pages long. It reveals, among many other things, that constructing this segment of the line will release close to 400 million kilograms of carbon dioxide-equivalent gases into the atmosphere. It claims that this cost will be quickly repaid by the savings from reduced CO2 emissions once the trains are operating, but that’s based on unrealistically high ridership projections along with the assumption that neither automobiles nor airplanes will ever be more energy efficient or climate friendly than they were a few years ago. No doubt the state spent millions of dollars on this poorly reasoned document. Continue reading →

January Travel Dips

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Most modes of travel took a nosedive in January, whether measured on a month-to-month basis or compared with pre-pandemic travel. Amtrak passenger-miles fell from 404 million in December to 231 million in January. January travel is generally a little less than December’s, but in this case it is much less: as a percent of pre-pandemic numbers, Amtrak passenger-miles fell from 69 percent in December (relative to December 2019) to 56 percent in January (relative to January 2020), according to Amtrak’s Monthly Performance Report.

Transit is also lagging behind, according to data released earlier this week by the Federal Transit Administration. Transit carried 377 million riders in January, down from 438 million in December. As a share of pre-pandemic numbers, transit fell from 56 percent in December to 47 percent in January. Continue reading →